Jim Rogers Buying the Yuan

[DcifrThs]

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If you buy them in China, can you take it outside of the country? I know a business owner with an office in China...

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we are now way beyond my knowledge here. i just remember that in november 2006 i wanted to buy some yuan but couldn't. now there appear to be futures contracts to do so. that i think is the best way to do it.

Barron

[kimchi]

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If you buy them in China, can you take it outside of the country? I know a business owner with an office in China...

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I have a drawer stuffed with Yuan from my last visit that I can't be bothered to change as I'll be back again soon. I don't remember there being anything on the customs declaration form about not being able to take Yuan out of the country.

Many countries I've been to have limits of between $2000 and $10000 or currency equivalent that you have to declare. I've no idea whether or not you can take it after declaration.

[ahnuld]

why not go to china with 100k USD, convert, open a savings account, and leave it for 5 years?

[DcifrThs]

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why not go to china with 100k USD, convert, open a savings account, and leave it for 5 years?

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uhh, b/c with that you could get 3 contracts for 375k worth of exposure to the Yuan and have maybe 70k left over to earn the higher US interest rate.

Barron

[neverwas]

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Good luck though being a small Forex trader and getting in on this yuan trade.

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i'm going to search around some spreadbetting sites, but igindex don't offer yuan but offer all sorts of other currencies.

ill post if i find anything useful.

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You can trade the yuan (USD/CNY) at Oanda.
http://www.oanda.com/site/pr/exotic_...03142007.shtml

[Actual God]

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why not go to china with 100k USD, convert, open a savings account, and leave it for 5 years?

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uhh, b/c with that you could get 3 contracts for 375k worth of exposure to the Yuan and have maybe 70k left over to earn the higher US interest rate.

Barron

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how does this margin business work?

[john kane]

sorry as you all know i am a complete novice, so could i please check that:

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now i know that you can at least purchase renminbi (yuan) futures from the chicago mercantile exchange. i posted the link to get them. they cost about USD 125k but only require a maintenance margin of less than 10k (couldn't get an exact quote but 50:1 would be 2500 and 20:1 would be 6k).

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say i need a minimum margin of 20:1, so i put down $6k. i then have an effective position of $125k in yuan. if that position then goes down to $119k then i need to make a margin call (?) and put more down if i want to continue with the position?

sorry just i only spreadbet where i can have a guarenteed stop loss, whereas am i right in saying that if i had $6k margin deposited but then my position dropped to $100k, i would then have to deposit another $19k?

i will likely buy 1 contract i think, i doubt i want to risk any more than $10k. any thoughts of likelyhood of it dropping 8% and bustoing my $10k?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry as you all know i am a complete novice, so could i please check that:

[ QUOTE ]
now i know that you can at least purchase renminbi (yuan) futures from the chicago mercantile exchange. i posted the link to get them. they cost about USD 125k but only require a maintenance margin of less than 10k (couldn't get an exact quote but 50:1 would be 2500 and 20:1 would be 6k).

[/ QUOTE ]

say i need a minimum margin of 20:1, so i put down $6k. i then have an effective position of $125k in yuan. if that position then goes down to $119k then i need to make a margin call (?) and put more down if i want to continue with the position?

sorry just i only spreadbet where i can have a guarenteed stop loss, whereas am i right in saying that if i had $6k margin deposited but then my position dropped to $100k, i would then have to deposit another $19k?

i will likely buy 1 contract i think, i doubt i want to risk any more than $10k. any thoughts of likelyhood of it dropping 8% and bustoing my $10k?

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the margin adjusts daily. i don't think it will busto 10k by a long shot if it is 50:1 margin, and even at 20:1 it is a greater change, but still not likely since i think the margin rule is you have to lose some big chunk to get a margin call (not sure exactly what it is for the contract at hand).

also, that onida thing i'm gunna go check out to see what the rules are there.

also, the value of the futures i'm sure are determined in some huge way by the probability of the yuan being more freely floated. so good economic news from china or higher inflation from china (or vice versa in the US) would either a) increase the likelihood of more interest rate hikes in china and thus more "inching up" of the yuan, or b) lower rates in the US which makes it harder for the PBoC to keep the yuan at the peg (i.e. they have to sell more yuan).

i don't think they''ll be any shortage of those 2 news bits coming. hope this helps,

Barron

[DcifrThs]

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[ QUOTE ]
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Good luck though being a small Forex trader and getting in on this yuan trade.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm going to search around some spreadbetting sites, but igindex don't offer yuan but offer all sorts of other currencies.

ill post if i find anything useful.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can trade the yuan (USD/CNY) at Oanda.
http://www.oanda.com/site/pr/exotic_...03142007.shtml

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i can't tell if this is a futures contract or an outright purchase. thoughts?

thanks,
Barron

[DOTTT]

Seems like an outright purchase. The spread is 40 pips thoough.