First SNG - Did I goof? - Page 2

Dr_Wonderful · #11 07-30-2007, 11:55 PM

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i don't see how you can pass this up. button's raising into 2 short stacks who he has well covered, and we only have t100 more chips than the bb, which means if he doubles up we're screwed. this is most likely going to be the best situation we will see and a double up can almost assure us of being ITM, while passing could potentially be disasterous for us.

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Exactly my feeling on the issue.

geo8o2 · #12 07-31-2007, 12:04 AM

ez push. folding does not by far in anyway guarantee u placing top 2. u only have 100 chip lead on him? that's nothing.

DevinLake · #13 07-31-2007, 12:23 AM

So everyone thinks that although we have position on the other shorty, this is a good spot to make a -$EV call?

chuckpalms04 · #14 07-31-2007, 12:30 AM

i think given the situation of a big stack and 2 very short shorties, it's one of those spots to make a -$EV call.

DevinLake · #15 07-31-2007, 01:29 AM

I want to start by saying I'm not writing this thinking shoving or folding is correct. I'm just generating discussion to force people to think.

If this is a spot to take a -$EV gamble, please list the reasons which makes this a good spot? IOW, what are your requirements for making -$EV plays?

This should include both considerations for the current hand and future hands.

drzen · #16 07-31-2007, 06:47 AM

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i think given the situation of a big stack and 2 very short shorties, it's one of those spots to make a -$EV call.

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OMG. I hope you has a bulletproof vest...

ymu · #17 07-31-2007, 07:05 AM

This depends entirely on how loose he is raising and how loose he is calling us AI. If he's raising around 35% and calling us AI with all of this range it's approx neutral EV (assuming ~2:1 payout). Against some villains it would be a +EV shove, against others -EV. A stop'n'go might also be an OK option here.

FWIW against a lot of villains I think this is a good shove. I can't see a reason to take a -EV spot here, but I don't think it will always be -EV. Depends on villain (both villains, actually).

chuckpalms04 · #18 07-31-2007, 11:39 AM

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FWIW against a lot of villains I think this is a good shove. I can't see a reason to take a -EV spot here, but I don't think it will always be -EV. Depends on villain (both villains, actually).

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I was thinking a shove here probably isn't -EV anyway. we don't have much fold equity, but i think on the bubble with a big stack raising from the button we figure to be ahead of his range enough times to make it profitable to go ahead get our money in. Even if it's not +EV (which i don't see happening very often), I think we still need to get our money in given the fact that we're only 1 sb ahead of the shortest stack and we're sitting on only 5bb ourselves. the chance that he can double up when he gets it in as a 60/40 dog and we're left crippled is reason enough for me to get it in with a hand as strong as AQs.

DevinLake · #19 07-31-2007, 12:04 PM

I still think this is an interesting question but people are ingnoring it.

Let's assume, because the OP hasn't bothered to tell us differently, that the pay out is the same as most online 6max sngs, which is 60% for 1st and 40% for 2nd.

Assuming button never folds, then he needs to be opening >45% for this to be +$EV even if we don't consider the added EV of folding and letting the BB try to bust.

So, let's assume he is not raising 45%. So, I'm saying let's assume this is a -$EV call based on no other factors than ICM.

Please outline the other factors that make you think this is a good spot to make a -$EV call.

The fact that shorty can double up as a 60/40 dog is a reason to fold, not call FWIW because he busts 60% of the time.

TwistedEcho · #20 07-31-2007, 12:18 PM

i think that most people are ignoring it because of the lack of HH in OP (thats why i never read it!)

EDIT - urgh this is why people should post better format hands, i just wrote a reply with stacks 2000/1000/1000 and now have to redo it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Anyway, this is close and totally read dependant. The fact he didn't just openshove means he probably doesn't understand ICM/push fold poker and his range is tighter than it should be.

This really depends on the payout structure. If its 70$ for first, 30% second (like the UB 6max sngs) then its a shove vs most players raising on the button, if its 60%/40% then its reallly read dependant but almost certainly a fold against a random

it is breakeven against 44+,A3o+,A2s+,K8o+,K6s+,QTo+,Q8s+,JTs (28%)and most randoms aren't raising looser than this, in fact something like 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs is more accurate, and vs that range its an easy fold