PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND

[Omaha8sPoker]

$22 MTT

[Omaha8sPoker]

Here are the results...

The flop bettor had 8752
The preflop raisor had A842

The OP had 41% equity in the pot...I think this all comes down to trying to figure if the original bettor on the flop has a set...If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

I don't think calling is a bad play, but I think potting here might be a better play to accumulate chips early in the tourney...

[wiseheart]

I agree, but as I stated earlier you really need to have tried to build an idea of how these two opponents play to make a solid decision on this one, obviously if you head seen flop bettor make a move like this already then he would be a easy repot.

[bbartlog]

If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

Yes, but since a set leaves you in pretty bad shape (20% equity) the odds of a set don't have to be that high to make pushing here bad. Anyway flop bettor only needs to have AK7x/AK8x to drop your equity to 30%. If you assume his range is any two pair or a set (and we assume the preflop raiser has A2Wx, which is reasonable and turns out to have been correct), then he has to have specifically bottom two pair for you to be significantly ahead.
There are a lot of opponent hands that seem to leave you with decent-but-not-great equity (like mid 30s): 5678, 789T, K832 and so on.
Anyway, I just don't like pushing here because the equity edge against opponent range doesn't look that high to me, and we're not acting to minimize our chance of elimination. There are enough turn cards we should like that calling seems preferable, and only 15 or so that will make us want to fold (and even then it may get checked to us).

[Omaha8sPoker]

I guess my feel for raising here is this: shouldn't we want to put pressure on a naked-A2 to have to call a big bet here?? I know I said the FE here is probably zero (or damn close to it), but don't we want to try to knock out that other A2 thus massively increasing our equity in the hand???

[Jorge10]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess my feel for raising here is this: shouldn't we want to put pressure on a naked-A2 to have to call a big bet here?? I know I said the FE here is probably zero (or damn close to it), but don't we want to try to knock out that other A2 thus massively increasing our equity in the hand???

[/ QUOTE ]

A2 is never folding here unless its a hopeless A2 and the player is pretty good. It would have to be A29Q or something really out of it for high. Most A2 type of hands would have some sort of draw for high, which combined with the nut low makes them call.

[ QUOTE ]
The flop bettor had 8752
The preflop raisor had A842

The OP had 41% equity in the pot...I think this all comes down to trying to figure if the original bettor on the flop has a set...If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

I don't think calling is a bad play, but I think potting here might be a better play to accumulate chips early in the tourney...


[/ QUOTE ]

I think it was very lucky that the bettor had bottom two here. It doesnt matter if the players are terrible in these tourneys. Most should be able to tell when they have a good hand. The bettor did. He was saying exactly what I thought with his bet, "I have Aces beat and I dont want any more cards." He happened to have the crappiest hand that could beat aces in this case, but still if he had aces crushed why would your top pair be any good? If you had raised you would be hoping that the low would get there or that somehow you could draw out on him for high, that is if you werent drawing dead for high. Not a great long term strategy.

I know that top pair and nut low look amazing and seem unbeatable, but you said it yourself. The people in tournaments are terrible players who will be in there with anything. A set is not really unusual in omaha. I think calling here with top pair and nut low is the difference between cash games and tournaments. In a cash game I shove this flop all day because I can reload and because people are less likely to be in there with 77 or 88 so I am only thinking about KK. In a tournament though, 77 and 88 are more likely since people are much worse.

[Omaha8sPoker]

Interesting take Jorge...Interesting take...I probably would play it just the opposite, calling in a cash game and shoving in a tourney...

I might be looking at this incorrectly but if we believe that the flop bettor has any 2 pair and not a set that we have a lot of cards on the turn that really look good for us...This gets me to thinking that we aren't that far behind any 2 pair so shoving might not be a bad idea...

I guess the logic flaw here is that if almost any card on the turn is gonna be good for us might as well peel and see the action before committing more chips...

I don't see folding here, do you? I think folding is a very weak play on this flop...Now not to say if it went BET-RAISE-RERAISE that I would consider calling, but here when it goes BET-CALL, I can't see folding as being a +EV play...

[Jorge10]

Folding is a bit tight, but not out of the question. Some people dont like getting into trouble this early in the tourney. I wouldnt fold, but its not horrible, just a bit tight for my taste.

[Borys313]

You are horribly result oriented.

You say there are lots of good cards, wtf??
What cards do you consider being good?
Only a K or Q improves your high and you still lose to a set if one is out there.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand and if he calls also your scooping chances are 4-5%. The fact no one had such hand out of 6 people means only that you were very lucky.

If you want to play this hand push of course to make all mid-cards fold and ideally stay only with a weaker A2.
Calling is horrible beacause you let other hands draw cheap for high and almost any card completes them.

[bbartlog]

Good cards: sixteen low cards (3-6 all suits), two kings, three queens, and also (less good but probably still OK to continue with depending on the action) the two remaining aces and the 9 T J of hearts.

push of course to make all mid-cards fold

Again, yes of course if people will fold decent hands then pushing looks great. Only I think the fold equity here (at least against our flop raiser and preflop raiser / flop caller) is vanishingly small. If you want to look for fold equity I think that getting the other nut low draw to fold on the turn (if a high card we like falls) is a better possibility - but of course to do that you have to call on the flop instead of jamming.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand ... The fact no one had such hand means only that you were very lucky

Not really. Odds of someone having a particular two card combo (e.g. 9Txx) among all opponents, assuming all these hands get played, is about one half. Which is why the odds of the nut low being out there on any particular board are about 50/50. Once you narrow the range by specifying that one of the remaining cards must be a J, you're looking at about a ten percent chance of 9TJx being out there. Most of the other wraps (78xx) don't drop our equity that much.