The hand reading thread

[cheburashka]

Great thread!

As I've written in other posts, I suck at this game, so take my answers with a grain of salt, but...

I think most likely is KK, followed by 77, 44 and JJ. 3bet pre-flop means something pretty good. I agree that it probably means JJ+ or AK--but it might mean 77 or 44 trying to build a pot for trips.

Post-flop betting implies at least an overpair. No two pair match our assessment of pre-flop. So we're looking either at AA, KK or a set, and JJ is least likely set simply because hero has a J.

The re-raise on the river makes me think KK. Trip Ks is about the only thing that would be too tough to lay down in the face of heavy betting and three hearts on the board, although JJ, 77 or 44 might be tough to lay down as well. AA or QQ is a sure lay-down.

[ottsville]

Good thinking so far...
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You donk the flop and he suspects that you might have hit the J and wants to buy some information. It's also possible that you are on a draw like 65 or something.

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Just for clarity, we are raising the flop...and we raised PF. Do we raise 65s after one limper in this position PF?



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I think the river is most confusing. If you are still hanging on and the third flushcard hits and you raise him, he probably is beat.

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How often does he give credit for someone backing into a flush?


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He can also play 98 or QT the same way,

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How likely is it that these hands 3bet OOP at these limits?

You're thinking well so far...let's get some more feedback before I reveal anything.

[Isifhan]

Grunch:

Preflop I'd put him on a range of 10-AA, AKs, AQs doubt AJs would three bet pre-flop like that out of the BB but it's a small possiblity.

Flop cont. bet from him may just be that but with the three bet he either hit a piece of the flop or thinks he's still ahead so we can narrow ranges a bit. I'd say AA, KK, QQ, or JJ with a strong possiblity of JJ.

Turn is standard with JJ and is probably what I would put him on at this point.

The river is really strange to me though. The flush comes and he three bets to you. Does he think a straight is good with AQs? But for him to have AQs his flop play makes almost no sense.

From the action I'd say he's holding JJ's or maybe KK with the flop three bet.

*edit: I really like this idea btw, do you think you can post a NL example after some responses to this one?

[ottsville]

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Flop cont. bet from him may just be that but with the three bet he either hit a piece of the flop or thinks he's still ahead so we can narrow ranges a bit. I'd say AA, KK, QQ, or JJ with a strong possiblity of JJ.


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How strong a possibility is JJ here, given that we are holding one? (hint: bayesian analysis and what does he think we have?)

[quirkasaurus]

i would guess he flopped trip 4's or 7's.

( after reading the other posts, though,
i like the KK idea, hitting trips on the river )

[Isifhan]

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How strong a possibility is JJ here, given that we are holding one? (hint: bayesian analysis and what does he think we have?)

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True, there's only one (J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) combo. Doh. Given that you didn't cap preflop and that you didn't re-raise turn when the 10 hit, my guess is he's probably putting you on AJ at this point on the river. Given he three bets the river I'd have to say KK.

[ottsville]

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i would guess he flopped trip 4's or 7's.

( after reading the other posts, though,
i like the KK idea, hitting trips on the river )


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You're not thinking in ranges as the hand develops....does a player with these stats 3bet 44 and 77 oop?