TT on a JQK flop $10R

[skiier04]

Start of third hour... villian has been fairly weak tight limped in with aces last hour and I stacked him flopping trips with 64... so we have a bit of a history.

I realized I guess I should have bet more on flop so I would face an easy call to the push but I bet a little too small and was faced with a tough decision.


Can't get a single converter to work this morning so sorry about that.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2566260734: $10 + $1 Rebuy (19469178), Table 1 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:44:41 ET - 2007/06/02
Seat 1: skiier04 (22,355)
Seat 3: rubbersoul (9,080)
Seat 4: Jus-Blaze247 (12,745), is sitting out
Seat 5: ccpaultr (18,670)
Seat 7: badshiba (43,960)
Seat 8: JacTrac (24,595)
Seat 9: 77Peter77 (12,165)
skiier04 antes 50
rubbersoul antes 50
Jus-Blaze247 antes 50
ccpaultr antes 50
badshiba antes 50
JacTrac antes 50
77Peter77 antes 50
Jus-Blaze247 posts the small blind of 250
ccpaultr posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to skiier04 [Ts Tc]
badshiba folds
JacTrac folds
77Peter77 folds
skiier04 raises to 1,500
rubbersoul calls 1,500
Jus-Blaze247 folds
ccpaultr folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd Qs Jh]
skiier04 bets 2,200
rubbersoul raises to 7,530, and is all in
skiier04: ???

[RyanUSF]

I'd raise 4-5x the BB preflop in this situation.

As for the flop, you're getting 2.6-1 to call and are probably looking at most 8 clean outs. If he's as weak tight as you say he is I think you can narrow him down to: KK, QQ, JJ, AK, or possibly AA (A10 is doubtful). I think you're pretty far behind here, regardless, and don't have the odds to call.

[skiier04]

Thats what it came down to if I gave myself 8 outs I wasnt quite getting the right price but if I gave myself 9 or 10 outs for the 2 tens then it was very close.

[RyanUSF]

If he has AA or AK, your third 10 is no good.
If he has KK, QQ, or JJ your third 10 is also no good.

[WestonPoker]

you do realize that rubbersoul is basically a known pro at the lower stake MTT's? right? he gets to more final tables than anyone on fulltilt.

[cheburashka]

You're getting 2.6-1, and I come up with:

Board: Kd Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.962% 26.45% 01.52% 11782 675.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 72.038% 70.52% 01.52% 31418 675.00 { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Almost exactly 2.6-1. So no +EV, unless you have reason to think there's a decent chance he's bluffing.

[BlueEcho]

I don't know skiier, this looks like a call to me. If you actually think your 8 straight outs are clean you are getting 2.17-1. The pot is offering you 2.6-1. I don't think villian ever does this with air but I think it's 2pair enough to add those 2 T's in some of the time.

[jonnyd]

i really dont like the flop bet, but if youre going to bet, bet more so that you get a better price.