playing a draw in pos

[ottsville]

Been at the table for about 3 orbits, Sb has played few hands but not gone to showdown UTG is donk.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($29.25)
SB ($61.25)
BB ($42.20)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($21.50)
MP1 ($16.55)
MP2 ($4.55)
CO ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $1, CO folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($4.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2.25</font>, UTG folds, Hero?

My thoughts... if I call and the flush comes out, he'll probably fire a little feeler bet and shut down. Is this the right spot to push?

[zman2245]

This is quite a complex situation.
Merits of raising:
(1) might fold out villain and you take down pot. yay
(2) might get you a free turn card
(3) goes towards disguising your hand (as long as you play other hands like this)

I would be more inclined to call if player is really aggressive and will just push over the top of me if I raise here. You obviously don't want to get it all in here with villain because you'll be at least a 40-60 dog.

A big thing to consider is fold equity - especially when semibluffing turn.

[ottsville]

[ QUOTE ]
You obviously don't want to get it all in here with villain because you'll be at least a 40-60 dog .

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I ask how you figure that? I get 46/53 to an overpair and a hair better for AK. That, and the fact that I don't expect to extract much more if the flush hits makes me want to be aggressive here, but I don't know quite what is right.

[zman2245]

Sorry I forgot about the Ace - was just considering plain old FD without overs. Anyways the odds still aren't great to plan to get all in here.

[Albert Moulton]

I call. Then I decide what to do on the turn depending on what happens.

I don't like pushing because is looks too much like you want a fold. I suppose if you play this kind of big push on the flop a lot with 2-pair, overpair, all draws, and all sets, then this can be a high-variance style that is tough to play against. But if you don't play like that typically, then villain will smell a rat. "Would he really do that if he had a set??? No way...He must have a draw..." In fact, pushing here with a set might be good because it will LOOK like a big bluff and get some calls with top-pair type hands.

Raising is also good. But if you raise, raise to $8. If he calls, then plan to push the turn whatever it is if he checks to you. You might have to fold if he calls your raise to $8 and then leads the turn for a pot-sized bet. And you should fold if he pushes on the flop over your raise.

I like calling, and deciding what to do on the turn. If he checks the turn, then I bet the pot with a plan to push any river whether I hit or not. If he bets the turn, I call if I'm getting 5:1 pot odds, push if I think he's making a weak blocking bet, or fold if he looks strong and isn't giving me good pot odds.

If I hit my diamond on the turn and he checks, I probably check behind to induce a bet and/or call from him on the river. If I have the nuts on the river and he checks, I might very well overbet push to look like I'm stealing and might get a weak hand to call that might have folded to an obvious "value bet." And if the board pairs and villain makes a big bet, then I just call.

[threads13]

I usually play this one based on player reads.

Versus a weak-tight player I think a 2/3 PS raise or so will get a fold and you will end up in a better EV land than calling to hit your flush.

Against a caller I am more apt to just call myself and plan on banking pretty big when I hit the flush.

Since we don't have a read either way against this player I will tend to pick the more conservative route and smooth call the bet.

[KurtSF]

Raise from the sb leads me to believe this is a big hand. I think his range is 99+, AQ+. You are crushed by his range (I think its 100% you are behind here).

Reads permitting, I think a good raise will fold out 99, TT, AQ, and AK. JJ, QQ, KK, and AA will probably then shove. So you win $6.50 60% of the time and lose about $10 (33% equity in $60 pot minus the 29 bucks you have to put in) 40% of the time. With these assumptions the raise is EV0 and high variance.

A fold is EV0 and low variance.

If villain can't lay down overcards or pairs under the high card on the board you're in trouble.

If villain is a total fish and will pay your flush, or if he is the sort who will check the turn to you, I think an argument can be made for a call. You are getting 3:1 with a 4:1 chance of hitting, so its immediately -EV, but if there's a chance you could get a free river or massively paid off it may make up for it.

Make a choice and go with it.

[Genesis]

"Sb has played few hands but not gone to showdown "

I read this as tight and he can likely find a fold here if he missed. So I go for the 2/3 pot raise to take it down now. If he calls I am checking the turn through without catching my flush.