LA Dodgers @ Colorado 4/18

[tippy]

Play: LA Dodgers -107 (5dimes)

Dodgers (10-4) have won 6 of their last 7. Dodgers are 6-2 on the road. Colorado (6-8) has lost 5 of their last 7. Colorado managed to pull out a win last night over a 4-7 Giants team with 5 in the bottom of the 8th. LA won last night at AZ.

Dodgers pitch Lowe. Lowe is one of the best groundball pitchers in MLB, which plays well at Coors. He is 2-1 this year with his worst outing being his first where he gave up 6ER to Mil on the road. Second start he gave up 1ER in 7 innings to SF and in his third start he gave up 1ER to STL in 8 innings. Looks like the 1st start was somewhat out of line to his pitching history. He looks to be pitching pretty well as of late. The Giants should have beaten Col last night and the Dodgers are a much better team than SF, although the line doesn't show the degree of difference. The Dodger pen threw Saito and Broxton last night so they may be a little weary, however Colorado threw Fuentes BOTH Monday AND last night, so he may be more of a risk.

Colorado throwns Rodrigo Lopez. Dodgers beat him 2-1 in LA on 4/10, so they have already got a good look at him. LA should be ready for him this time. Lopez has looked decent in his first two starts, but I'm not convinced that he is anything other than his 5.00 lifetime ERA stat. Also, in his first two starts of the season he only threw 76 and 68 pitches, with 48 and 43 for strikes respectively. If the Dodgers get to him early, the Colorado pen is suspect, especially with their closer Fuentes having pitched the last two nights and Ramirez going two out of the last three nights.

I'd say the Dodgers have about a 60% chance of taking this one (which would equal a line of about -150), which is way better than the -107 on the board. They should at least have enough winning percentage to cover the 52% winning chance that the -107 implies.

Good luck.

Edit: Line on the 4/10 game was Tomko -127, Lopez +117. Given that Lowe is way better than Tomko, and COL is getting about 20cents for Home Field you can see how far off the line is.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I like your analysis, but saying that the Dodgers beat Lopez 2-1 in LA doesn't necessarily mean they got a good look at him. I might bet this later, but I wonder what others have to say first.

EDIT: Also, hasn't Lopez pitched in the AL most/all of his career? That's not going to help the ERA...

[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your analysis, but saying that the Dodgers beat Lopez 2-1 in LA doesn't necessarily mean they got a good look at him. I might bet this later, but I wonder what others have to say first.

EDIT: Also, hasn't Lopez pitched in the AL most/all of his career? That's not going to help the ERA...

[/ QUOTE ]

Anytime you get to face a pitcher only 8 days ago, I'd say you got a good look at him. Having never seen him before, they still beat him 2-1. Lopez should have had the advantage in that game, but he still lost. Given that this is the Dodgers SECOND time facing him in 8 days, they know what he throws and should be well prepared and should do even better this game than they did in the first where Lopez was an unknown.

And yes, Lopez pitched in Baltimore in the AL, where he was terrible.

[crockpot]

the shift from colorado on the road to colorado at home would be 40 cents, not 20.

i don't mean to deride your analysis, but i think it's pretty standard for a sportsbook to factor most if not all of these things into their line.

[Grasshopp3r]

The weather should be good for this one. I don't know if I like your sinker ball advantage analysis, though. The Rocks have tried to bring in lots of "ground ball" arms without much to show for it. Altitude minimizes the downward break for sinkers so they tend to throw them too high.

The Rox need to have a 4 knuckleballer rotation and a bullpen that throws in the high 90's.

Again, I am on the over, which is at 7. I may try to go to this game.

[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
The weather should be good for this one. I don't know if I like your sinker ball advantage analysis, though. The Rocks have tried to bring in lots of "ground ball" arms without much to show for it. Altitude minimizes the downward break for sinkers so they tend to throw them too high.

The Rox need to have a 4 knuckleballer rotation and a bullpen that throws in the high 90's.

Again, I am on the over, which is at 7. I may try to go to this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

7? You sure you got the right game? I got 9 1/2.

HeHeHe, I wonder where a team could find 4 knuckleballers these days. Better yet, how about 4 lefty knucklers. Sweet. Cook seems to do ok at Coors. Agreed though, Neagle and Hampton were disasters.

[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
the shift from colorado on the road to colorado at home would be 40 cents, not 20.

i don't mean to deride your analysis, but i think it's pretty standard for a sportsbook to factor most if not all of these things into their line.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, I just assumed that everybody understood the Homefield figures. Guess I shoulda spelled it out for ya. Any homefield team gets about 20-30 cents on the line. Make appropriate adjustments as needed.

Colorado went from a +117 dog on the road to a +101 dog at home. So ya think Lowe is only 23 cents better than Tomko?

I think they missed this one though. Linesmakers don't always get it right...

[MrFeelNothin]

Thanks for convincing me to follow crockpot's Colorado pick.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the shift from colorado on the road to colorado at home would be 40 cents, not 20.

i don't mean to deride your analysis, but i think it's pretty standard for a sportsbook to factor most if not all of these things into their line.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, I just assumed that everybody understood the Homefield figures. Guess I shoulda spelled it out for ya. Any homefield team gets about 20-30 cents on the line. Make appropriate adjustments as needed.

Colorado went from a +117 dog on the road to a +101 dog at home. So ya think Lowe is only 23 cents better than Tomko?

I think they missed this one though. Linesmakers don't always get it right...

[/ QUOTE ]

He's saying a shift from road to neutral field is 20c and a shift from neutral field to home is another 20c, so total from road to home is 40c.

[tippy]

Kent, Martin and Gonzalez all on the bench tonight. That certainly helps explain why the line was so far off from where I had it. Didn't know they were going to sit 3 regulars. That line should have been -150 or so with Kent, Martin and Gonzalez playing.

No wonder it looked so good...