Live Monte Carlo KK hand

[Chimp__greg]

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ok, i can probably see how some are saying its an easy bet if checked to. But I completely disagree about an easy call. You really think that a player like the one i described is gonna bet 1010 on the river to try to get value from smaller pairs? What hands do you guys expect him to be turning over if he bets the river that we beat, besides AK for a bluff?

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But can't the same be said for hands that beat us? By your analysis, he can't have a seven, as he wouldn't get out of line with A7 or 77. If he wouldn't do this with AJ he definetly wouldn't do it with KQ. So the only queen he can have is AQ, which, still, is getting out of line pre-flop for a straightforward player like this, based on your read. I don't think he'd raise this much with queens and we can't just put him on quads so I'll discount this for now.

So the only hands that beat us are JJ and AQ. AQ is less likely since it's a big raise pre, which I doubt he'd make with AQ as a standard player who doesn't think too deep.

So, the only likely hand is jacks that bets here, whereas TT and 99 might make this bet, as well as AK. I think tens and nines are very likely with the big re-raise, he wants to win the pot pre-flop by getting you to fold. So, 3 hands that you beat, ~ 1.5 hands that you lose to, 2 hands if you really think he's strong here. Therefore, with the odds given, easy call IMO.

[celticslegend]

aa also beats us as does qq

[Chimp__greg]

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aa also beats us as does qq

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Yes, but do those hands raise that much? Isn't a player without much thought going to try to raise for value here with QQ+ and try to pick up the pot by raising more with 99-JJ, AK?

Does his flop check really look like aces though? Again, to a non-thinking player he has top two pair... why not bet here? It's not like he's trying to slowplay with rockets, two queens are out there. And he won't be thinking about pot control.

I edited queens in right before I saw your post, this is very unlikely because of two queens on the board already, but is consistent with the flop check. However, you can't fold just because he might have QQ here.

But, keep up the arguing, I'm here to learn, anything making me think more is good.