Early MLB Games

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Not much value out there on opening day.

Plays (5dimes): Atl +1.03
ChicCubs -1.22


Predicted scores:
FL 4.464
Wash 4.146

Atl 5.206
Phil 4.012

La 4.645
Mil 4.077

Chc 5.060
Cin 3.854


Probably like Atlanta as my favorite early game. Brett Myers isn't quite the stud pitcher everyone makes him out to be. His OBP (.329) and SLG(.439) against are about league average. Probably his biggest weakness is the HR, especially to RHH's, which is odd considering the RHP on RHB matchup should be a favorable one for most pitchers. At least one of Renteria, Chipper, Andruw, and Francouer should be able to hit one out of the bandbox in Philly. Not sure what to make of Kelly Johnson or Scott Thorman, but they are both Lefties going against a RHP, so the results shouldn't be too bad. McCann should also feast on the LHB v. RHP matchup. Langerhans may contribute a little, as he also has a LHB v. RHP matchup. Overall, Atlanta looks to have about 40% more HR ability than Philly.

On the other side Smoltz is, well, Smoltz. If he can just keep Utley and Howard under control, he should do just fine. Howard didn't have much of a spring and may be a little overhyped and pressing. Smoltz should control the righties of Burrell, Helms, Rowand and Barajas. Victorino has no power, but Smoltz has to keep him off base ahead of Utley and Howard.

The game looks to be a little in Atlanta's favor, and you get them as a dog. Nice little value.

Chicago at Cinncinnati. Zambrano v. Harang. Hopefully Zambrano has his head screwed on right as his contract negotiations continue. They should have finalized that before sending him out to the mound today, but it doesn't appear that the have. Not sure how this will affect him.

Harang, like Myers, is about average to a little above. However DON'T be fooled by the RHB v. RHP advantage. It doesn't really exist with Harang. The Cubs are loaded with RHB in Soriano, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Derosa and Izturiz. The lone lefty is Jacque Jones. His overall OBP against is .327 and SLG against is .442. If you break it down vs. LHB (OBP .318, SLG .422) and vs. RHB (OBP .334, SLG .459) you can see where he has trouble. He also has a bit of a problem giving up the longball to righties. The Cubs should be able to put up some runs in this game.

If the Cubs can put up 5, hopefully Zambrano will turn in a quality game. As a small favorite at -1.22, there is some value here.

[JupiterUWG]

i am a braves fan so i am slightly biased but I think there is legit value in +103

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[ QUOTE ]
i am a braves fan so i am slightly biased but I think there is legit value in +103

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We can't buy a break. Braves drop an easy popup and let a run score. This one should have ended 3-2 Braves. And we load the bases in the 9th and can't get even a single run. How aggravating.

Well, on to the tenth inning we go...

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Whew, Renteria saves our ass. Final: Braves 5, Phillies 3

[mrboland78]

go yanks. i can't believe all the folks that took tampa bay for this one.