NL - $200: Set troubles...

BeatPurdue · #1 02-17-2007, 02:53 PM

Villian is 17/9 and I feel he may have hit his straight on the turn.

I have such a hard time folding a set, but I can't be ahead here still, can I?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP3 ($221)
CO ($97.45)
Button ($188.05)
SB ($225.40)
BB ($197)
UTG ($66.35)
UTG+1 ($187.50)
Hero ($233)
MP2 ($123.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 4 folds, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($18) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12.

Turn: ($42) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB raises to $90, Hero calls $60.

River: ($222) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $115, Hero ???????.

Oxy · #2 02-17-2007, 03:05 PM

Wow. I generally never fold sets... but what the hell takes a line this strong? I bet more on the flop for whatever it's worth. I don't think he has a straight. I'd put him on something like 99 or JTcc or QJcc or something.

Albert Moulton · #3 02-17-2007, 04:42 PM

I don't like raising with 22 at full ring.

If you are the kind of guy that hates to open limp, you can always just fold preflop.

I usually just open limp. Maybe I should start open folding 66-22, but I definitely don't like raising in EP or MP with small pairs full ring.

This hand appears to be a case of the baluga theorem in action. Namely, check/call then check/raise = monster hand.

I think villain has 99. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be able to fold either. In fact, I would have probably pushed on the turn expecting villain to call with 99, KQ, maybe AK, and big combo draws. I think KK or QQ would have reraised preflop, but maybe he could have KK or QQ if he likes to be tricky with these OOP (usually a bad idea).

Any way, if you just call on the turn instead of push, then you pretty much have to call the river because you're getting 3:1 on your money. Just hope he has KQ instead of a flush, a straight, or a set. My money is on 99 for a higher set that is blocking at the river incase YOU have a flush.

bmanning · #4 02-17-2007, 05:16 PM

who is villain? Also he is not blocking on river. that is pretty much his whole stack going in on river. I really can't see 17/9 peeling oop with gutshot. the question is will you see 2 prs more than 99 or maybe weirdly played pair and flush draw which hit flush. depending on his aggression factor i can find a fold.

Albert Moulton · #5 02-18-2007, 12:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
who is villain? Also he is not blocking on river. that is pretty much his whole stack going in on river. I really can't see 17/9 peeling oop with gutshot. the question is will you see 2 prs more than 99 or maybe weirdly played pair and flush draw which hit flush. depending on his aggression factor i can find a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB would be the villain.

You are right that SB isn't blocking if just about all his stack is going in on the river. I have a hard time keeping track of stack sizes on later streets when reading the posts sometimes.

So, since it's a huge bet relative to what he has left, then that means he really likes his hand and isn't afraid of the club flush card on the river.

He either is making some bizarre bluff on the end, or he is way overvaluing 2-pair on all streets with the check/call then check/raise line, or else he has a set of 2s beaten. I think it's the latter, and therefore folding is good.

Jurrr · #6 02-18-2007, 06:29 AM

Preflop is fine.

Flop bet more.

By the river you beat pretty much only KQ*9 but it is not that likely. 99*3 is very consistent with his line. JcTc*1 or QcJc*1 beat you but may have raised flop trying to get it all in I think. Ac9c*1 and Ac2c*1 may be possibilities here as well but also would raise flop, wouldn't they?

Really tough situation here; you are not likely to be good but then again you are getting decent odds.