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Old 10-29-2007, 06:24 PM
BermudaDude BermudaDude is offline
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Default Noob in trouble: Stack size effect on pot odds decision in tourney

When playing in freeroll MTT's, a problem I frequently encounter is when, how and how much your "tournament situation" (stack size compared to the average stack and bubble, pre-bubble or post-bubble) should affect decisions involving pot odds.

Before the hand below I had approximately 2.3 times the average stack very early in the tournament. 4327 players started with t1500. Around 2600 players remaining, top 55 getting "paid" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hero has played tight all the time at the table, played no hands from EP except checking in the BB and played only big hands in MP.

UTG and the button had played many hands in general. UTG had gone all in twice in a row before this hand (everybody folded). UTG+1 had folded or only called limpers for the last 6 or 7 hands and then folded pre-flop.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t1340)
SB (t1320)
Hero (t5675)
UTG (t2760)
UTG+1 (t1410)
MP1 (t1320)
MP2 (t2990)
MP3 (t1335)
CO (t1275)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t165) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t90</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2730</font>, UTG+1 calls t1380 (All-In), MP2 folds, Button calls t1310 (All-In), Hero to act

My own thoughts were something like the following:

Hey Dude wake up, clear call. You just need to win this somewhere around 3/10 to 1/3 of the times and look at all those outs: 9's and 4's. That ought to be enough, eh ? Well, it's close. And even so, you have a nice stack. But is that 2.3 times average stack really worth much this early on ? Ooops, two diamonds out there, so better not count 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as an out. Could someone else be on a straight draw as well ? And even the bigger one ? These guys raise preflop with almost any pair and they didn't raise, so why are they going all in on this board? Definately someone has a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-draw. How many outs was that ? At most 7 and that's without discounting for possible straights. But it is a possibility for doubling up... Hmm, I sure wish I knew how to think about the equity of t1000 at this point in the tourney. How about that UTG-guy ? Going all in the 2 hands before this one !? Pfh... Surely he is just crazy. On the other hand. This time I bet out postflop and I have been tight, so he must know I have something. Or perhaps he just felt that with my not so big bet (right size indications, please ?) I was weak and with his previous all-in and steal the blinds success... Ooops, used 15 secs of the bank already...

A little more mental babbling before I made my decision.

What parameters would you consider and how would they influence your final decision ?
I am particularly interested in, if, how, how much and why Hero's stack size compared to the average stack size in the tournament affects your decision.
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  #2  
Old 10-29-2007, 06:35 PM
JSmith2007 JSmith2007 is offline
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Default Re: Noob in trouble: Stack size effect on pot odds decision in tourney

I fold this. You've got a dominating stack/chip lead over your table and definitely can find better spots to put your chips in. I don't see the need to double this guy up and lose your stack over max 8 outs.
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  #3  
Old 10-29-2007, 07:26 PM
ChipSpeak ChipSpeak is offline
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Default Re: Noob in trouble: Stack size effect on pot odds decision in tourney

He just put 80 BB's in pot.. fold without nutz or close to it, which we aren't.
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  #4  
Old 10-29-2007, 08:13 PM
BermudaDude BermudaDude is offline
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Default Re: Noob in trouble: Stack size effect on pot odds decision in tourney

Thanks for the reply.

Apologies if my questions are too elementary.

You mention that Hero has a dominating chip position at the table. Is stack size relative to the table in general the thing to look at early in a tournament rather than stack size compared to the average stack of the remaining players in the tournament ?

In a situation as above, how do you figure out what the number of outs after the flop that *would* make you call is ?

Is there some way of using the ratios of your stack size and the average stack plus number of remaining players, your current position and places being paid to get some heuristic indicator which would help in determining how willing one ought to be to take risks at a given point in a tournament ?
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  #5  
Old 10-29-2007, 08:27 PM
JSmith2007 JSmith2007 is offline
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Default Re: Noob in trouble: Stack size effect on pot odds decision in tourney

As for stacks - I disregard every stack number during a tournament unless it's the person I'm playing against in a certain hand (and obviously analysis afterwards). Realizing your stack in a tournament compared to the average stack should not affect your play at all (tighter or looser). But for your stack now, you're only drawing to 8 outs max (explained next) and do not need to give up your lead on the table to try and get more. Granted, there are only 55 places paid and could probably use the scapegoat "win or nothing" but I still disagree with it.

As for counting outs, you have an OESD, hitting a 9 or 4 for it. With 3 people calling/ending up all in before you, it's safe to say that atleast one of the players has a flush draw. Another probably has TPTK or JJ-AA or even a set. The third player could be considered to have TPTK, set, JJ-AA, and even a straight draw as well (J9, J7). All of which you're drawing very thin to, a four being the only reasonable out to make the nuts for you, providing it is not the 4 of diamonds, leaving you with 3 outs.

I personally don't see how you can call this at all unless you feel like gambling completly and praying to hit something, which you usually won't.

And you are most definitely giving too much thought onto chip stacks. They mean virtually nothing until you're in a higher blind structure, and even then you should be focusing on reads and plays made by others moreso than how many chips you have over this or that person.
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