$114 - weird bubble shortiness

[suzzer99]

Yeah if we call we're committed to the hand. Good thing too. BB shoves post flop. I call with nothing, SB folds. Shorty has a set, BB has air, I hit runner runner straight. So... in this case, what was supposed to happen with the call of a hand like 87o to protect against shorty tripling(+) up... actually happened. Yay for righteousness and order in the universe.

(It's all in the censored thread, one of the crazier finishes I've ever had. 4 straights in a row when I needed all 4. Also to save a completely disasterous set that would have had suzzer biting the doorjams again.)

[sippin_criss]

I don't know the numbers but I'd just flat call and call if there's a shove behind. I don't know if I'd get it in with much worse than this though, but it's such a random situation that will only come up once every few thousand sng's so it doesn't seem like a big deal.

[Q..]

I like fold, this way CO would have to win at least 2 pots to get 3rd with pretty random hands (this and the one when bb hits him if he triples up now). That would be roughly 1-0.5*0.5=0.75 for us to get 3rd. 0.5 is rough average chance for CO to win allin against 1 other guy(it would probably be less since when he would be on bb after winning this round he would be facing best hand from out of 3 ppl)


If we call now and bb calls there would be 6 types of outcomes, in stack size order
123
132
213
231
312
321

If biggest stack wins we are 4th, if shortest stack wins and biggest stack wins our side pot(132) we are fourth, we only like it when we win both pots(213,231) and when we win at least side pot against big stack (321)
So there are 3 good(semi) outcomes and 3 bad for us here, if we consider everyone to have roughly 33% to win that would be 50% to bust if we go allin along with big stack, so folding looks much better to me. If our win chances are less then 33% 3 handed then its even worse. If sb joins the party it would be even worse for us..

[Shillx]

Sorry took too many drugs last night. It is tough to say with your stack but it is probably better to fold as long as they won't prolong the bubble. If you had 11 more chips you could fold this hand and then limp UTG the next hand.

As an aside, it was a huge mistake for him to limp UTG.

[The Venetian]

I'd lean towards a call, expecting SB to push any two. Apparently that didn't happen here, but I wouldn't expect any help from the SB in ending the bubble in this spot.

[MikeMcQ1]

I like a call as opposed to pushing. One scenario that could happen is SB and BB could wake up with monsters and clash with big hands. If that happened, I have no idea what the numbers would say but I think I would then fold.

[suzzer99]

Yeah that would be interesting/awesome if SB shoves and BB calls.

[palman]

Just wondering, if you are SB in this hand and hero folds, how many of you shove any two? Not the best spot for this since due to stack sizes, there's going to be no reasonable expectation of bubble pwnage, but if you can get just one more lap around where you can steal off #2 it would be worth it.

[suzzer99]

Instashove if you're SB and hero folds. Probably should shove even if I call. He called here though, and BB checked. Yay passivity.

[pokerman777]

[ QUOTE ]
With t975 you need to push. Fold if you have > t985.

[/ QUOTE ]
pls explain this , don't see how to calculate this ... ?