PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND

[GaZaZaZa]

I cant ever see myself laying that down there, esepically in a low stakes tourny where most players thinking isnt nearly as advanced as you give them credit for. I can see the logic in just calling to conserve chips if u miss and give yourself a chance to survive in the tourny, but i must say i shove there everyday of the week and twice on days ending with "y"

[Truthiness24]

I agree that there's no way you can lay it down in a donkament. WSOP maybe, but that's another story.

But consider that everyone else (everyone else with a brain) is thinking the same thing: shove & double up or move on.

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If seat 9 is sucky then you might want to go ahead and repot.

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This is key IMO: if everyone else has a piece then it's a call. But if you're likely (>30%, perhaps) to be splitting someone else's chips, then it's a push.

[Borys313]

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Good cards: sixteen low cards (3-6 all suits), two kings, three queens, and also (less good but probably still OK to continue with depending on the action) the two remaining aces and the 9 T J of hearts.

push of course to make all mid-cards fold

Again, yes of course if people will fold decent hands then pushing looks great. Only I think the fold equity here (at least against our flop raiser and preflop raiser / flop caller) is vanishingly small. If you want to look for fold equity I think that getting the other nut low draw to fold on the turn (if a high card we like falls) is a better possibility - but of course to do that you have to call on the flop instead of jamming.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand ... The fact no one had such hand means only that you were very lucky

Not really. Odds of someone having a particular two card combo (e.g. 9Txx) among all opponents, assuming all these hands get played, is about one half. Which is why the odds of the nut low being out there on any particular board are about 50/50. Once you narrow the range by specifying that one of the remaining cards must be a J, you're looking at about a ten percent chance of 9TJx being out there. Most of the other wraps (78xx) don't drop our equity that much.

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3-6 arent good cards because we still need to improve to avoid geting quartered (most of the time, because in the low limits one might play an A3).

I agree with your point that I might have overestimated the chance that the wraps are out there.

The concept call and evaluate is bad, just look at this situations.

Imagine that one villian has a naked A2xx with no-high and other two small pair or a wrap. If we push flop the naked A2 may fold instead of calling and we we stay only with the wrap having the best of it both ways. But if we call and low card falls we get qaurtered.

And any card between 9-J virtually forces us to surrender on turn. I like poting so much more then calling on flop.

But still I believe that given the action one can easily fold as i wrote earlier.

[sharky21222]

he is right,the play is so fishy in the beginning,thats why i would repot and gamble

[sharky21222]

i would repot in tourney and fold in a cash game,lol ,tourney players are 5 times as bad

[prodonkey]

I think anything other than raising is a mistake, you might have the best hand right now.. if you don't, raising might make the best high hand fold, depending on what kind of crap people are playing. And if someone has A2 chasing their low, I want all their chips in the pot.