Thin River Calls... Theory Post.

[JooWish622]

What factors should come into play when making thin river calls. Anything more than just Opp frequency of doing so. Obv board development on the turn and river is important. I think when the turn and river come T A, we should be more likely to call than if it was A T. What about when draw cards on the river hit? In certain posts, I see people say "if a third spade comes, then you should be more likely to check-call the river bet". I guess if we put him on a hand that isnt a draw... then we should be more likely to call off.


Anyway, FF was talking about a hand in which he debates thinly betting the river with A2 on a board that reads:

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T on the turn, A on the river.

Villain is OOP and bets the flop of K32. FF floats the flop with A2 by calling an 8k bet, and when checked to bets 9k on the T turn, and then is checked to on the A river.

His opponant, after calling FF turn bet, is on a hand range that probably includes a King, an A, aces up, 66-QQ, maybe 34s, 45, 56 sometimes?, and spades.

My question: If we are the Villain, what factors should come in before making calls with the mid pairs, or even a 3. should we even consider making a call with a 3 here? I'm asking because I seem to be wrong often (obv being wrong often is part of thin value calling), but I want to make sure I'm not overdoing it. I seem to sometimes make these calls without thinking and I think I may be overdoing it.


So, What are all the factors that should come into play here? Anything else besides the flow, agg of opponant? Board development? Draw cards hitting or not hitting?

[Phresh]

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I think when the turn and river come T A, we should be more likely to call than if it was A T.

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I think this can be wrong very often and should not be used as a general blanket rule of thumb. I think solid hand reading and a strong read on your opponent are the only factors in making a thing river call (or doing anything really).


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My question: If we are the Villain, what factors should come in before making calls with the mid pairs, or even a 3. should we even consider making a call with a 3 here?

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That's way too thin, IMO. How often will Hero get to that river and bluff with a worse hand than a 3?


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Anything else besides the flow, agg of opponant? Board development? Draw cards hitting or not hitting?

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I don't think so. These all fall into the strong read and hand reading categories. The only thing different that I can think of would be metagame or how the action would change after, e.g., if your thin call is right, maybe your opponent will go nuts and tilt, or your opponent will never bluff you (regardless if it's best or not). These are probably not good enough reasons to force yourself into making a play that can easily be vastly -EV (similar to randomly bluffing for an image when you can just pick smart spots to bluff, and if you're caught you have the image).

[JooWish622]

Is calling with a 3 here on this river any different (against not-great opponants who won't bet QQ) than calling with JJ?

[Phresh]

Yes, we don't beat 44-QQ, which are all hands that we can bluff with. I'm not calling with JJ here either, though (although wtf would I know, I'm not playing in that game, my boy Prah is, what it do SHAWTY SHATY SHWATYYT!!!101)