1/2 NL: Deciphering Mixed Signals

[mxp2004]

This is a hand from a live 1/2 NL game. The question is about how you would interpret the other player's actions and statements at the end of the hand.

Villain was LAG preflop, often putting in the first raise with a wide range of hands, and calling raises with just as wide a range to see a flop. However, after the flop, he played very well and made good decisions.

In this hand, a tight player with a big stack limped from MP. I raised to $12 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] from two seats down. Villain called on the button, as did the limper.

The flop came out 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. It was checked to me, and I C-bet $25. The Villain called again, as did the limper. So now there was about $110 in the pot.

The turn was the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Everyone checked.

The river was the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], for a final board of 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So I paired my A, with a Q kicker.

The limper checked, and I checked behind, intending to call any reasonable bet by the Villain and maybe even check-raise, depending on the bet. At this point, the Villain stood up from the table and pushed all in for $170, announcing, "I'm ready to go home." The limper mucked. I had about $200 behind and a decision to make.

I felt like I had the best hand here because the way that the Villain played the hand seemed more like a flush draw that missed than anything else. If he had a monster (A6, A8, AK), why would he overbet the pot and put me all-in?

However, all the physical/verbal tells were to the contrary. The "I'm ready to go home" speech seemed like a classic "weak means strong" tell. The standing up at the table struck me as someone who really liked his hand. Also, he stood there perfectly calm, with his arms folded across his chest, while he waited for me to make a decision. There was no nervous energy at all.

So how do you put all this together? Would you call or fold here? Do you trust your instincts on the betting patterns, or do you let the physical/verbal signals over-rule them when you have a marginally strong hand?

[FishSticks]

Fold.

I'd probably make a small bet on the river.

[Chaos_ult]

Hate your river check a lot.

As played I guess I fold.

I don't think I bet the flop either..

[modnareno]

Anytime anyone says "I'm ready to go home" all they are ready for is to double up. This is an easy fold. Also, your kicker doesn't actually - not that i think it really matters, he has the ace beat all the time.

[ThreeBeers]

Fold and let him go home.

ThreeBeers

[thac]

Yeah, so you chop with any ace and you beat a bluff against a guy that is acting like he wants to go home. Weak = strong, and he's definitely over-doing it. If the turn was a deuce or something so our kicker played, it would be a much closer decision I think, but here we beat a bluff.