Cards +110

tippy · #1 03-01-2007, 12:13 PM

going with the Cardinals +110 over the Mets today. Chris Carpenter v. Tommy Glavine. Hopefully they let Carpenter go 4. Maybe 41 year old Glavine has a hard time getting the rust off.

Looks like the Mets also used Wagner and Heilman yesterday so they likely won't pictch today

metsandfinsfan · #2 03-01-2007, 03:18 PM

el oh el betting on preseason baseball on March 1st

tippy · #3 03-01-2007, 05:00 PM

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el oh el betting on preseason baseball on March 1st

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Hehehe, couldn't think of any other way to make myself actually sit and scout the whole game without betting on it. Damn, Mets took it 4-3. Reyes looked good.

MicroBob · #4 03-01-2007, 06:20 PM

One could argue that the veteran pitchers are less likely to be motivated in such a game (Wagner and Heilman) and just want to get their work in and not throw a curve-ball...while a AA pitcher you've never heard of might be hungry to show himself off in one of his few spring-chances in front of everyone.

I don't know how valid that theory is but it's worth considering.

Greg Maddux was asked after a spring outing if he was upset that he got lit up. he didn't care and said that he didn't throw a single curve-ball.

MicroBob · #5 03-01-2007, 06:24 PM

Also, I don't think any starter goes 4 innings in their first start of the spring.
3 is pretty unusual.
2 is pretty standard.

tippy · #6 03-01-2007, 09:43 PM

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Also, I don't think any starter goes 4 innings in their first start of the spring.
3 is pretty unusual.
2 is pretty standard.

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LaRussa pushed Wainright 3 innings yesterday. He pushed Carpenter 3 today. Standard for him. I figured with Carpenter going 3 and Glavine going only 2 that I had an edge with StL +110

MicroBob · #7 03-02-2007, 02:31 AM

I reiterate that some of those guys just go out there and pretty much throw fastballs only.

Carpenter in spring-training first-outing may very well not care at all whether he gives up hits or not. Just trying to throw strikes.

I really disagree with the idea that you would gain any kind of edge because Carpenter goes one more inning than Glavine.

tippy · #8 03-02-2007, 09:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I reiterate that some of those guys just go out there and pretty much throw fastballs only.

Carpenter in spring-training first-outing may very well not care at all whether he gives up hits or not. Just trying to throw strikes.

I really disagree with the idea that you would gain any kind of edge because Carpenter goes one more inning than Glavine.

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Are you serious? You wouldn't find an edge in Carpenter (one of the best pitchers in baseball) going three against 41 year old Glavine for 2 and a scrub for 1? And as an underdog at that? I'll take that edge anytime.

As for many of these guys just throwing, I agree. Many of the unknowns do come in hungry, they also come in nervous and pressing. The vets don't. However, a Larussa team doesn't play around in spring training. Where else do you find Pujols, Rolen, Ecstein and other starters playing a majority of second exhibition game? Larussa also runs his pitchers for longer periods than other managers to show well.

The key to spring training is not so much in knowing your players, but rather in knowing how each manager will approach spring training. I love betting on Larussa and a few others who take spring training seriously. It is an edge.

MicroBob · #9 03-02-2007, 01:37 PM

I imagine this might be more correct.

Not that I believe that much in Carpenter this early but that Larussa might be more competitive about it.

If I were able to dig up wins/losses of past spring-trainings and saw the Cards almost always were at the top then I would definitely agree with your analysis.

Also would be interested in seeing how teams have performed in the first week or two of spring.

So I disagree about Carpenter because I don't think it's a big deal.
But I agree about Larussa because I think that could be a very big deal.