Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Other Poker > Omaha/8

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 05-01-2006, 10:27 PM
Mendacious Mendacious is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Planet Lovetron
Posts: 1,010
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

This is why I posted my question. I know that there is conventional wisdom to what you say, however, I tend to favor Mute's advice. Here's why. (Close cousin to "Do you see why")

I question to what degree Greenstein's advice applies to online poker. In this instance, none of the tables I was playing at was particularly juicy. They were pretty standard table composition-- much the same as I would find everyday with many of the same players. There was not a particular "fish" or plural "fishes" giving away money, I simply caught good cards If I thought I was sitting at a juicy table I wouldn't have even considered leaving. I don't think I was leaving a big score on the tables.

That said, I agree that this mentality is a weakness-- however, perhaps one that it is better to play around in some online situations where favorable conditions are constantly shifting around and realigning themselves on different tables, in a way that does not happen in live poker.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-02-2006, 11:49 AM
Kuso Kuso is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 353
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

[ QUOTE ]
Good advice, I do that too. In this case it isn't an amount per se, I've had bigger days, it is the first day of the month and I'd just as soon bank a juicy day than bust up a streak of good play. But unlike you I have I have the option of moving up and scoring bigger (or losing it all back in a hand), so I wonder if I am being lame or losing my nerve in a manner of speaking.

[/ QUOTE ]

there's a lot of very real psychology that applies here. if you want to stop when you're way up, then stop. all of this talk about "keep playing if it's a good game and you're playing well" and "it's just one long session" has some valid points, but these types of platitudes tend to ignore the psychological aspects of poker.

booking a big win gives some people a lot of confidence, while blowing one (or even losing a bit of it) breaks this confidence in others. know yourself and act accordingly.

honestly, go with what works for you. i'd only be concerned if you find yourself booking small wins and big losses. i don't think that's the case for you.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-02-2006, 11:50 AM
Kuso Kuso is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 353
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

[ QUOTE ]
The play at the 100 and 200 tables on Party (and the 400 and 600 tables, for that matter) is terrible. Find a table with 2 or 3 of the known idiots and keep playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

there are only two or three known idiots at party?
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:04 PM
Kuso Kuso is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 353
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I posted my question. I know that there is conventional wisdom to what you say, however, I tend to favor Mute's advice. Here's why. (Close cousin to "Do you see why")

I question to what degree Greenstein's advice applies to online poker. In this instance, none of the tables I was playing at was particularly juicy. They were pretty standard table composition-- much the same as I would find everyday with many of the same players. There was not a particular "fish" or plural "fishes" giving away money, I simply caught good cards If I thought I was sitting at a juicy table I wouldn't have even considered leaving. I don't think I was leaving a big score on the tables.

That said, I agree that this mentality is a weakness-- however, perhaps one that it is better to play around in some online situations where favorable conditions are constantly shifting around and realigning themselves on different tables, in a way that does not happen in live poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

glad you booked the win, but why were you at these tables anyway? i would never sit at a table if i couldn't identify AT LEAST one fish/donator (not difficult at party, imo).

fwiw, i've gotten over the session obsession by just doing the following. after each session, i review all of my big hands. i look at the twodimes numbers, and i try to put villain on a reasonable range (and run these numbers, too). some of this is enlightening in terms of statistics (my intuition is not always accurate about the equities), but the important thing is that i'm able to evaluate the quality of my decisions. i've found that this has cut down DRASTICALLY on my bad decisions, as i've come to realize the times when i'm putting my money is as a dog. gradually these instances are becoming more and more rare. regardless, even if i lose money at the tables, i'm OK with that as long as i've made good decisions.

i also journal all of my "lessons", so that i can review them when necessary. this journal could easily become a book (one that i'll never publish).

fwiw, i also don't track results by month, week, etc. these are just arbitrary cut-off points. i'm OK with tracking by year, and by quarter might be OK if you play enough hands. other than that, i just want to evaluate my play on a hand-by-hand basis. i look at sessions only if i see a trend (e.g., saturday mornings at party are not wildly profitable -- *cough* weak-tight nut-peddlers *cough*).
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:27 PM
Mendacious Mendacious is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Planet Lovetron
Posts: 1,010
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

[ QUOTE ]
glad you booked the win, but why were you at these tables anyway? i would never sit at a table if i couldn't identify AT LEAST one fish/donator (not difficult at party, imo).


[/ QUOTE ]

This is an intersting point. I have been probably a little slack in my "fish" tracking. At the limits I usually play, I think they tend to go away quickly, and as a consequence I tend to simply look for looser tables. Keep in mind if you multi-table above $100 limits, there are seldom THAT many different tables to choose from. I will generally flock to the loosest table and close down a table where I recognize too many tight players. Most of the time this gives me an edge on whatever table I am playing on, but I probably DO need to devote more time to a cataloguing the FISH rather than relying on Pokertracker and settling for a smaller edge.

That said, I would be giving up a pretty steady advantage if I only sat down at a table where I could identify at least one fish/donator (at least by my standards).

Case in point: Today I sat down at the $400 tables and I'd say I immediately recognized about half the tables as chronic players I'd consider solid (but not quite as good). There were a couple more that I had played with but made no impression and 2 unknowns. One of the unknowns with a name that closely resembles "Letool" seems to enter a lot of pots and makes a lot of pot sized bets and re-raises where it is unlikely that anyone has much of a hand. He comes over me on a pretty big steal attempt and I go down $100. It doesn't take long for me to catch a strong 2 way hand, get some money in the pot, and I take all but $70 of his stack-- which he didn't rebuy. This is not an uncommon scenario, and one which if I refused to sit because there were no identified fish (and the rest of the table was solid) I would be $230 poorer. I view myself as having an advantage at virtually every table I play and view every unknown player as most-likely to be giving up a HUGE advantage to me.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:43 PM
Kuso Kuso is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 353
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

i suppose i should clarify my definition of "fish" and "juicy table".

a fish, well, i have my own criteria. bb/100 is a good one, but there are others that are better at determining how much they will lost TO ME. there are "winning" players over thousands of hands who i know are ultimately donators to my stlye. i'll let you figure out how to find these players on your own. bb/100 ain't it.

at the 100s and 200s, a table full of people who are 5 ptbb/100 or less is a good table to me. i take from all of these people over enough hands.

the tables i AVOID are tables like the 400s on weekend mornings. you're often looking at a lineup of a lot of players at the table with 10 ptbb/100 (or so) winrates. the fishy money just gets chopped up between these mofos. they push chips around otherwise.

fwiw, i have to be very careful about table selection. i live in japan, so "prime time" for me is early morning US time. i see a lot more WT nutpeddlers at this time than mornings for me (evenings US time). i might be a bit sensitive to this issue, but i think that my concern is well-placed.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 05-02-2006, 02:37 PM
Mendacious Mendacious is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Planet Lovetron
Posts: 1,010
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

I can't use BB/100s as a measure because I don't datamine and I don't think I have any player in my database who has over 5000 hands-- which still is too small for a reliable sample size when it comes to BB/100s. I don't even display this stat (it used to be calculated incorrectly across multi-limits in PTO-- as well).

Any time there are too many players with VPIP 25 or less, PF raise > 5 and TA > 1.5 and W$SD > 60* at the tables such that this is pretty much the average, then I don't have much of an exploitable advantage. I am convinced that if your numbers are very close to these that you are almost certainly a very solid winning player. There may be very good players whose numbers stray in both directions for VPIP and Pre-flop raise percentage, but if these numbers are Higher for such a good player then they are very good to have at your table because they generate action.

* these numbers are based on full ring play.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 05-03-2006, 03:22 PM
Mendacious Mendacious is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Planet Lovetron
Posts: 1,010
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

And since taking this sage advice wherein I stopped playing Omaha on Monday in favor of some lower limit Hold-em to "preserve" the win-- and heater, here are my PL08 numbers for the last 2 days.



I must have picked a REALLY good new alias at Party, obviously. Seriously though, an absurd amount of this money has come from players that I am certain would not have called me if they knew who I was. Food for thought.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 05-04-2006, 12:20 AM
Kuso Kuso is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 353
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

i'm thinking that's sustainable.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 05-04-2006, 09:01 AM
Mendacious Mendacious is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Planet Lovetron
Posts: 1,010
Default Re: Coping with GOOD luck

Hell yes! I'm actually running at 60BB/100s so far this month [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

The thing is that for most of March and far too many days in April (which was my most profitable month yet) I was digging my way out of holes when I sat down at the tables. So far this month I sit down, I double-up, I leave and go play hold-em. Come back a couple hours later, sit down, double-up, leave...etc...

It's been adding up to about $600 a day, and my expectation is really only about $100 (right now), so even though it feels a little timid, it also feels right. Also, even though I've been lucky and paid off, I've played at around 90% of my potential-- which I consider to be a very high percentage. So, though arguably my reticence to bust up a streak has not affect my play AT the tables, it is limiting my time at the tables. I think continuing to play well is FAR more important, which is what MUTE was alluding to.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:58 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.