Weighted Ranges (Theory)

[Speedlimits]

As Aba once said, "You have a hand and your opponent has a range of hands, now based on your hand
versus his range of hands you decide what the best action is." That is probably the simplest way of explaining
poker, but as we all know the whole process of assigning hand ranges is anything but.

This is because poker hands are measured in terms of relative NOT absolute value. This leads to contingent
decisions based on future variables. If X card improves your hand on one street, you may internalize that you will commit
if Y card does not come in on the next street. Since the texture on the flop affects your decisions so much, and since
different textures lead too different ranges. It is only logical to assign some kind of weighted scale towards ranges.

Weighted ranges- This type of range is assigned when the flop texture brings a draw but not multiple draws. You can
deduce this even further based on your opponents actions, if he's effectively been calling you down then bets big
when the draw completes. His holding is more than likely the completed draw. We are led to this conclusion because
his previous actions follow logically up to this point. Secondly, he has committed himself on a dangerous board after
YOU showed strength on the earlier betting rounds.

Weighted ranges become even more important when you hold strong second best hands. This is because the
majority of weighted ranges imply that YOU were ahead in the hand. Since most draws are rarely ahead on the
flop and almost NEVER on the turn, a lot of your decisions will be made on the river. That is to say, a lot of money
will be in the pot when it comes to make your decision. An interesting phenomenon usually occurs at this time.
Because the pot is so big, and your hand is strong, most players begin rationalizing calls on pot odds alone.
The fallacy with that is, an opponents hand is so weighted towards the hand he is representing that your
pot odds will rarely be good enough to call.

This phenomenon of weighted ranges causes many players to misapply the concept of pot odds. Not only
that, but most players will never fix this mistake because they believe they are applying a fundamental poker theorem
to their game. Then fallaciously, use this theorem as evidence to support their bad play! An important part of assigning
ranges is following through on either your calls or folds. This will help develop your reads and eventually become
internalized until it is second nature. Remember:

"Don't substitute pot odds for hand ranges"

[Montezuma21]

are you saying you should stick to your read?

[ManChild]

IMO, people waste a lot of money on the river when they are thinking about a decision and then go 'oh, I'm getting 3 to 1' and they call when in reality they are not good nearly that often. People convince themselves, oh man, I'll win this pot 1 out of 4, but often they are very wrong

[KRANTZ]

google "g bucks"

jman wrote it. read it over and over

[cs3]

similarly, people always love to say:
"i called the turn, and the river is a blank, so i have to call again" when so often its completely wrong.