Downswings.

[KRANTZ]

good post cero

[Python49]

ummm, 85k hand breakeven isn't that bad.

[9cao]

Yes it is possible and it is very easy to simulate various scenarios in Excel for your own expected WR and SD for a couple million hands. If you do this I promise you will see a lot worse stretches that what you are on now.

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good post cero

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[luegofuego]

tbh, i am a pretty big winner and i make so many [censored] dumb mistakes when i play. its not outright tilt its just sloppiness and pansiness (no way this dude is calling a crai but meh, better just fold and move on). while i agree that a lot of the current super stars probably have ran on the right side of variance, i think some of yall underestimate the difference between a solid winner and a truly great player. ofc a 18/15 tag with a true wr on 3 will go on sick losing stretches but is that really "sick variance" or is it in large part his own fault for making all these mistakes and not exploiting all of his edges in the best way he can?

this may sound like a sick high number pulled out of nowhere but it wouldnt surprise me if i learned that the mistakes i make when playing cost me 1-2 stacks of EV for each 1000 hands i play.

[Kevin Browne]

i play mid limits and I was winning between 80-120 buyins a month between jan and april, and then May I lost like 40 buyins in the first 2 weeks of the month loool ( i ended up having an even month, after grinding like crazy)

When you play over 80k hands/month downswings are inevitable, how you handle them is whats important. Playing just a little worse can really hurt you.

loool, I lost 16 straight combo draws earlier this month, fulltilt was rigged against me for that week [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[profEERNIE]

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i play mid limits and I was winning between 80-120 buyins a month between jan and april, and then May I lost like 40 buyins in the first 2 weeks of the month loool ( i ended up having an even month, after grinding like crazy)

When you play over 80k hands/month downswings are inevitable, how you handle them is whats important. Playing just a little worse can really hurt you.

loool, I lost 16 straight combo draws earlier this month, fulltilt was rigged against me for that week [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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lol @ 40 buy in downswings

[cocarondelle]

Hi,

Just for the background:

I moved from 1/2 to 10/20 (I moved up limits like every month approximately, doing all of them, ie, 1/2, 2/4, 3/6, 5/10, and 10/20).

Since I play poker I had only one losing month, which has been the one when I tried to move up at 25/50.

I played like 80K hands at 25/50, and lost about 110k $.

I am definitely convinced that my play was not optimal, I took too many marginal spots, I got outplayed , I tilted probably 25% of it etc.

I went back to 10/20 for 5 months, where I still show a consistent +6PTBB/100.

I also know another player who play higher than me, and plays better than me, never tilts, and never had a losing month ever yet.He just carefully chooses when to play, when he feels good, and mistakes from him are pretty rare.(I saw maybe 2 since I know him....)

So, I guess it's pretty difficult to answer to your question, but I think that if you play really seriously, stay focused, without tilting, and you spend as much time working on your game as you spend playing (reading, reviewing HH, discussing with friends, sweating stronger players...) 100K hands downswings due to only "bad luck" are probably very unlikely.

[inverted]

thanks cero (:, I was just thinking that if you can't handle the variance OP maybe move down a level and get your win rate up?

[Therdeford]

As a relatively new player the subject of downswing interests me greatly, because it exists I need to understand it to deal with it correctly.

I have read most significant 2plus2 articles on the subject and have concluded that 100k downswings are the result of play issues not luck issues.

Downswings do occur as does good luck and bad luck but in Poker we can measure the level of luck we have by calculating, when we lost a big pot, if we got the money in good or bad.

After each session win or lose record if you put the money in ahead or behind.

I would ask anyone who has had a break even or losing 100k to honestly review the sessions and calculate the % of time the correct decisions was made.

If this practice is maintained after each session the Large pots won or lost can be further categorized to include Tilted hands and Set-ups, to take it to this level we all also have to have an understanding of Tilt and what it is.

I would also be as profound to say that anyone who has experienced the 100k downswing never implemented the above at the time.................honestly.