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#1
04-28-2007, 07:55 AM
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Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
1) Ive played about 200 $16 turbo SnGs and have a ROI of 21%. How close is this likely to be to my real ROI and how many games does it take before varience starts to calm down?
2) My pokertracker says I have an overall ROI of 23%. Sharkscope says I have an ROI of 9%. Whats up with that. I did play about 30 MTTs with -ROI before I started playing SnGs but surely one oft these figures must be wrong. Is Sharkscope unaccurate? 
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#2
04-28-2007, 12:44 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
1) The varience doesn't calm down.
2) Sharkscope may be including games that you don't have in your Pokertracker database. Look at the number of tourneys played.
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#3
04-28-2007, 12:46 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
Regarding 2), it's more likely an error on your side
- did you filter sharkscope results properly? - did you filter PT results, and also did you import everything properly?
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#4
04-28-2007, 12:47 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
You're ROI is likely nowhere near 21%, you'll have a better idea around 1000 games but even that might not be right.
Sharkscope is extremely accurate, over thousands of games for me it has maybe missed 1 or 2 (and it doesn't include MTTs).
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#6
04-28-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
[ QUOTE ]
sharkscope misses like 5% of my games, it's not _super_ accurate. [/ QUOTE ] this is incorrect. it missed around 1-1.5% of games in my experience.
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#7
04-28-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
1) if you're asking this question, you don't have a 20% real ROI. 200 is pretty small, it'll only take a few bad sets to knock 20% down real fast. 20% is in the upper tier of players in the 16s.
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#8
04-28-2007, 02:46 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
[ QUOTE ]
1) Ive played about 200 $16 turbo SnGs and have a ROI of 21%. How close is this likely to be to my real ROI and how many games does it take before varience starts to calm down? 2) My pokertracker says I have an overall ROI of 23%. Sharkscope says I have an ROI of 9%. Whats up with that. I did play about 30 MTTs with -ROI before I started playing SnGs but surely one oft these figures must be wrong. Is Sharkscope unaccurate? [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like you have not experienced variance yet. Most solid players experience somewhat regular downswings of 25+- buy-ins. They are not predictable or controllable. I have several every year (I sometimes find some leaks too, but a lot is also out of my control). See what your ROI is after 1000 games. Sharkscope seems pretty accurate to me. I only use the 5 free/day. I believe it captures all tournament results. On the free version there is a line graph that provides your ROI by similar buy-in. The initial ROI that pops up is combined for all of your tournaments, I believe.
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#9
04-28-2007, 02:50 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
[ QUOTE ]
1) Ive played about 200 $16 turbo SnGs and have a ROI of 21%. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sounds like you have not experienced variance yet. [/ QUOTE ] I respectfully disagree. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#10
04-28-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: Noob questions about varience and Sharkscope.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1) Ive played about 200 $16 turbo SnGs and have a ROI of 21%. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sounds like you have not experienced variance yet. [/ QUOTE ] I respectfully disagree. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You haven't experienced it yet. Hell, you can't even spell variance yet.
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