The usual... QQ flop Kxx

[fretelöo]

I don't have that much on SB - he's a loose-passive. He doesn't seem to have that much of a clue. Likes to donk any pair or good draw and seems to be unable to spell check-raise.
MP3 is a fit-or-fold player. He's barely limping and wouldn't fold a king here ever. I'm not sure what he would do with A2s/A4s but I doubt he'd 3bet that pre. I'm relatively certain though, that he'd raise any good draw.

+Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero ???

What's my plan for the rest of the hand? I'll post turn and river later (so you already know: I didn't fold...).

[seano34]

If hes fit or fold and he is leading out on the flop in to you OOP after you capped then I think you are a pretty big underdog. Whats he likely to bet here?

At worse its AA,AK,KK,KQs, at best its a flush draw or QQ, and given one of your outs could put a flush on the board you could be in trouble. I think you have to call given the pot size and then re-evaluate on the turn.

Im guessing a Q hits on the turn.....

[fretelöo]

MP3 is fit or fold. SB is the passive guy.

Edit: Nope, no queen. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BionicComma]

With MP3 behind you once you've decided to peel you've got to call.

I think I fold to any raising though. MP3 isn't 3-betting with nothing, according to your read.

If you hit your one outer on the turn, cap if possible and hope you dodge the flush.

If the flush completes on the turn, an A or a K comes pitch it. If MP3 is still in you'd fold to a T or J also.

Actually now that i think about this, I don't know that I even want to call the flop. But as played (e.g. not folding) call one bet, fold to a raise, hope to hit the turn.

[Big Folder]

I raise here. I want to drive MP out. He'll he might even have AK or AA and slow down or drop [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. Doubtful, but I think a raise is the best option. The pot is huge, sb donks which doesn't mean much, especially given the flush draw, so you should raise to get it headsup.

edit: For the rest of the hand, if mp raises you on the flop you can drop on the turn if you don't spike your 2-outter. If sb reraises you I'd drop on the turn as well.

If both call, then bet the turn. If you get raised at any point I'd be prepared to drop.

[nichtsnutz]

Oh, and I predict SB to be holding AA or KK

[MrWookie]

If you're playing at tables where people will fold AA to a raise on this flop, PM me w/ where you play.

My initial thought on this hand is that it was an easy fold. With SB donking in to TWO preflop aggressors AND with us facing an aggressor behind us who's capable of raising draws, I don't want to pay two bets on this flop. We don't even have backdoors to help save our ass.

Then I looked at the absurd pot size. If you knew you were paying one bet here, you could peel. You'd have the implied odds to catch your set, and heck, if you knew you'd only be paying one bet, the chance you're ahead is somewhat reasonable. However, we don't know we'll only be paying one bet, and if we get raised, our odds go straight into the toilet. We know MP will be raising AK, AA, maybe KK, and AsQs. That's 22 hands, although given the odds that a K is also in SB's hand, we're more properly going to be somewhere between 16 and 22 hands that he's raising. The hands he's not raising are TT-QQ and the other AQs hands, which is 21 hands. Best case, we're getting raised here 43% of the time, so our odds are more properly about 18.43:1.43, or 12.9:1. To draw to a set, we'd need to make up about 13 SB's. That's pretty optimistic here, esp. since sometimes we'll get flushed when the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, and sometimes we get pwned by KK.

Am I being a little pessimistic about ranges? Maybe, but I still don't see SB donking 72o here very much. He still called 2.5 SB preflop, and he's still betting into two people who've shown tremendous strength. We're drawing to a set here way more often than you guys seem to think.

For those of you raising, WTF? I guess we do protect our hand against TT and JJ, but really, that's just protecting SB's hand for him.

[MrWookie]

Guys, do a little hand reading. We were given a loose read, sure, but that doesn't mean he's playing any hand for any number of bets preflop. It's way, way, way more likely that he has a K (or better) than he has 2x.

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, do a little hand reading. We were given a loose read, sure, but that doesn't mean he's playing any hand for any number of bets preflop. It's way, way, way more likely that he has a K (or better) than he has 2x.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand he's not playing 26o here, but wouldn't a flush draw be likely given his play? LPP with a k here, just check call. Aggressive players would c/r. Donking is just so weird that I don't put him on much and I think I have him beat.

Great insight on MP's fit and fold tendency and realizing that raising here isn't necessary. I need to start paying more attention to specific players [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[nichtsnutz]

Unable to fold I raise it up. If I get it headsup I take the free card and a cheap showdown. If there is resistance (even as little as a turn bet) I fold.

I hate these situations and am pretty sure I leak there.