My Favorite SSNL Topic

[thedustbustr]

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For everyone who suggests fold, do you play AA the same way?

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are you joking?

[kitaristi0]

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Bobbo are you saying shove or fold? Because I consider that a tough decision.



This is what we're writing PNLHE towards. You'll never think about such hands the same way again.

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PNLHE?? Pot & No-Limit Holdem?

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Professional No-Limit Hold 'em. That's a working title, not final.

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FWIW, and that's not much, I'm not crazy about the new title.

[Matt Flynn]

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Bobbo are you saying shove or fold? Because I consider that a tough decision.



This is what we're writing PNLHE towards. You'll never think about such hands the same way again.

[/ QUOTE ]

PNLHE?? Pot & No-Limit Holdem?

[/ QUOTE ]


Professional No-Limit Hold 'em. That's a working title, not final.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, and that's not much, I'm not crazy about the new title.

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Tell me why please.

And any suggestions?

[Paul Thomson]

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Bobbo are you saying shove or fold? Because I consider that a tough decision.



This is what we're writing PNLHE towards. You'll never think about such hands the same way again.

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come on, give us a little hint.

if stacks were 100bb, I fold. I feel like we're behind way too often to two pair as much as anything.

[benlj21]

i would fold here because i have showed a lot of strength and villain doesn't care. i don't like checking behind at all. i don't really think villain ever has worse than a coin flip hand, and often we will be crushed imo.

[BearHustler]

Okay, I tried some math on this.

I thought up some hand ranges for different kinds of players, guesstimated what hands they would fold to a push, and calculated the EV for pushing against each player.

First of all, we have a raise to $7 + both blinds call = $21 + $20 flop bet + $81 raise = $122 in the pot. Villain started with $145. So he has $145 -$7 -$81 = $57 left after his flop C/R.

This means that when villain folds to our push, we win $122. When he calls and we win, we have gained the $122 pot + his remaining $57 = $179. If he calls and we lose, we lose $57.


Player 1: The loose agressive retard

C/R with 12.7% of hands:

<font color="purple"> 88+,A2s+,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QJs,QhTh,Qh9h,JTs,T9s,Th7h ,ATo+,T9o </font>

Will call the push with 7.1% of all hands and 49% equity:

<font color="purple">JJ+,88,AJs+,AhTh,Ah9h,A8s,Ah7h,Ah6h ,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,KhQh,KhTh,QhTh,Td9d,Th9h,AJo+</font>

If we add some bluffs and stuff, we could say this guy C/R here with 15% of his hands and calls our push with 7.5% of his hands. So he folds to our push a whopping 50%, which is of course $$$ for us.

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 50/100 * (+122) + 50/100 * 51/100 * (+179) + 50/100 * 49/100 * (-57)
= +$92
</font>

Player 2: The nit

C/R with 5% of hands:

<font color="purple"> AA,JJ,88,AJs+,AJo+ </font>

Will fold only AQo a few times to our push, and so he calls with 4.5% of all his hands:

<font color="purple"> AA,JJ,88,AJs+,AKo,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AdQh,AhQc,AsQc,Aj o</font>

So he only folds 5% of the hands he C/R with. When he calls, he has 70% equity.

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 5/100 * (+122) + 95/100 * 30/100 * (+179) + 95/100 * 70/100 * (-57)
= +$19
</font>

Player 3: A better player

Let’s assume this guy re-raises AA and AK preflop, the C/R will never be a total bluff, and he never folds to our push.

C/R and calls our push with 3.5% of hands, for 61% equity:

<font color="purple"> JJ,88,AQs-AJs,AhTh,Th9h,AQo-AJo </font>

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 39/100 * (+179) + 61/100 * (-57)
= +$35
</font>

The only guy we lose to:

is one who never folds to our push, never bluffs, and who has at least 75% equity when he decides to check/raise us.

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 25/100 * (+179) + 75/100 * (-57)
= -2
</font>

His range would looks something like:

<font color="purple"> AA,JJ,88,AJs+,AKo,AJo </font>


So it’s a push !

And a really easy one, so it seems. We’re just making tons of money off everyone, except that one guy in the end. But who plays like that, really? And we’d need to run into 50 of those guys for every donk that stacks off with A7o here. I don’t even think I’ve included any offsuit ace-rag hands for any of these players.

I thought this would be much, much closer. So I probably screwed up somewhere. Feel free to point out where.

[jk3a]

Great analysis bear. The math looks pretty good. I think there are a few hands left out of some of your ranges, but they are a great example. I did push, villian tanked for 2 sec and called with J8o, I sucked out!!

Edit: Your math is wrong. We don't lose just 57 when we push and lose. We lose 57 + (81-20) or 118. I think you need to redo your calculations.

[BearHustler]

Corrected:

I never seem to get these things right the first time around. So I’ll give it a second try.

I thought up some hand ranges for different kinds of players, guesstimated what hands they would fold to a push, and calculated the EV for pushing against each player.

First of all, we have a raise to $7 + both blinds call = $21 + $20 flop bet + $81 raise = $122 in the pot. Villain started with $145. So he has $145 -$7 -$81 = $57 left after his flop C/R.

This means that when villain folds to our push, we win $122. When he calls and we win, we have gained the $122 pot + his remaining $57 = $179. If he calls and we lose, we lose our $81 - $20 = $61 call + the $57 raise for the rest of his stack = $118.

Player 1: The loose agressive retard

C/R with 12.7% of hands:

<font color="purple"> 88+,A2s+,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QJs,QhTh,Qh9h,JTs,T9s,Th7h ,ATo+,T9o </font>

Will call the push with 7.1% of all hands and 49% equity:

<font color="purple">JJ+,88,AJs+,AhTh,Ah9h,A8s,Ah7h,Ah6h ,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,KhQh,KhTh,QhTh,Td9d,Th9h,AJo+</font>

If we add some bluffs and stuff, we could say this guy C/R here with 15% of his hands and calls our push with 7.5% of his hands. So he folds to our push a whopping 50%, which is of course $$$ for us.

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 50/100 * (+122) + 50/100 * 51/100 * (+179) + 50/100 * 49/100 * (-118)
= +$77
</font>

Player 2: The nit

C/R with 5% of hands:

<font color="purple"> AA,JJ,88,AJs+,AJo+ </font>

Will fold only AQo a few times to our push, and so he calls with 4.5% of all his hands:

<font color="purple"> AA,JJ,88,AJs+,AKo,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AdQh,AhQc,AsQc,Aj o</font>

So he only folds 5% of the hands he C/R with. When he calls, he has 70% equity.

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 5/100 * (+122) + 95/100 * 30/100 * (+179) + 95/100 * 70/100 * (-118)
= -$21
</font>

Player 3: A better player

Let’s assume this guy re-raises AA and AK preflop, the C/R will never be a total bluff, and he never folds to our push.

C/R and calls our push with 3.5% of hands, for 61% equity:

<font color="purple"> JJ,88,AQs-AJs,AhTh,Th9h,AQo-AJo </font>

<font color="blue"> EV(push) = 39/100 * (+179) + 61/100 * (-118)
= -$2
</font>

Break even:

If we assume that whoever our opponent is, he will lay down to the push at least 1 time in 20, which I think is realistic, we can calculate the equity we need to break even on the push, if we solve the following equation for x:

<font color="blue">0 = 5/100 * (+122) + 95/100 * x/100 * (+179) + 95/100 * (100-x)/100 * (-118) </font>


This gives us x = 38%. So if our opponent calls the push with a hand range that has less than 62% equity, we gain.

A range with 62% equity would look something like:

<font color="purple"> JJ,88,AQs-AJs,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,K hQh,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,T9s,AJo </font>


Where does this leave us?

So now we’ve assigned a few hand ranges to our opponent. If we could give each possible hand range a certain probability and then combine them, that would give us a number we could use.

The problem is to figure out what the odds are that you are up against a retard or an excellent player.

Since I have no idea of how to estimate this, I’ll just throw out some numbers.

If we are up against the lagtard 5%, the nit 20%, the better player 10% and the breakeven guy 65%:

<font color="blue">0.05 * 77 + 0.2 * (-21) + 0.1 * (-2) + 0.65 * 0
= - $ 0.55 </font>

So I’ve pretty much hit a dead end here. If you guys have any suggestions that might swing this decision either way, I’ll be happy to plug some numbers and see what we get. Our range of opponents now folds only 6.75% of the time. I have no idea if this is realistic or not. This is of course the biggest factor in deciding whether pushing is +EV or not.

I hope I didn’t make any further mistakes in the math. Let me know what you think.

[Abramovic]

Book title has to be

'Unlimited Texas Hold Them'

Also PLEASE NO MORE EQUATIONS.

[Albert Moulton]

BB is relatively short stacked compared to you, so his check raise is pretty much committing him to this pot. That means you have very little fold equity with a push.

So, after a $21 investment, do you want to wager another $120 (approx) that top pair is good?

I think combo draws (OESFD/GSSFD), AhXh, set, and two-pair hands are most likely for villain. My gut feeling is that a fold is good. Of course, I've pretty much committed to heart the idea I picked up on this forum a couple of years ago that in a 100BB game you want to avoid going broke with a one-pair hand. Based on a lot of posts in this thead (and others), I'm getting the feeling that 1-pair is more valuable this year.