200nl - no I WILL not get stacked by this nit

[wuarhg]

villain is 17/3 after 30 hands, average aggression postflop, on the passive side i think. what scenarios am i looking at here?
1. he has ace high flushdraw
2. he has a set
3. he has lower flush/two pair (these dont make that much sense with his stats so far)
and why would he minraise me on flop if he had a hand that wasnt a big flush, why would he give me correct odds to draw then push on my raise?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

MP ($181.10)
Button ($478.96)
SB ($138.57)
Hero ($226.55)
UTG ($168.12)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $2, Button calls $2, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($8) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
hero leads for 8, mp raises $18, hero reraises to $40, mp ALLin, hero folds.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
villain is 17/3 after 30 hands,

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy [censored].

[wuarhg]

im not exactly sure how much i can trust these stats after 30 hands in NL, in limit they arent that liable but give a base.

[yvesaint]

30 hands is nothing. call.

[FlyingStart]

Who is the nit?

I would never lay down a flopped Q high flush for 100BBs in a 200NL game

For a comparison: There are 7 combos of Ax of spades villain might hold here, and AKs,AQs,AJs would probably raise preflop. If you hold kings preflop there are 6 combos of AA left out there so the probability of running into aces with kings is about the same a villain having an A high flush here.
And because there are a lot of hands different villains may play strong on this board whereas preflop raising and re-raising usually defines a narrower range, I think this laydown is more nitty than laying down KK preflop for 100BBs

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
30 hands is nothing. super easy insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
fyp

[runnerunner]

30 hands is not enough to tell how the guy plays and if you lay down a flopped Q high flush for 100BB in a 200NL game then you are the nit!

[luckychewy]

You're 3-bet is truly terrible if you fold to his push.

[wuarhg]

good replies. yes I am the nit. does it matter how high of a flush you have? Instacall with all flushes here?