Really good river, but now he raises!?!

hoppscot22 · #1 10-11-2007, 04:29 AM

2 limps, aggressive player raises, I three bet QQ from the bb, both the limpers take 2 to the face, raiser calls.

Flop AJ3 i bet 1 fold, 2nd limper calls, raiser folds.

Turn A i bet, he calls.

River A i bet he raises.

he was plyaing pretty loose and passive, i didnt have HUD up at the time, but looking back he was 58/24/.8.

Call or Raise? If raise and get 4 bet easy fold?

This is 30 60 FullTilt btw

DpR · #2 10-11-2007, 04:34 AM

Id three bet and payoff.

Leader · #3 10-11-2007, 04:51 AM

I would 3-bet. His flop and turn plays don't make sense for an A given his stats. I think you hardly ever face a cap here. I would certainly call at the table. Is that the correct play? Probably not.

DeathDonkey · #4 10-11-2007, 05:03 AM

Every time I 3 bet here and tell myself I will fold to a 4 bet they do in fact 4 bet and I talk myself into a call. I would just call, I expect a weak ace would play exactly as he did.

-DeathDonkey

Keepitsimple · #5 10-11-2007, 05:05 AM

imo quads makes perfect sense given his line and image. however there are more jx and bluffs so 3-bet and pay off.

jba · #6 10-11-2007, 11:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
imo quads makes perfect sense given his line and image. however there are more jx and bluffs so 3-bet and pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

it doesn't do any good to 3bet vs. bluffs. how are there more Jx hands? I mean just raw numbers it is 3:1 more likely to have Jx than Ax but there are just so many more weak ace hands that make sense than Jx hands. you need to start adding hands like J8s or J9o or 88-TT in order to make 3bet/call better than just calling. if folding to a 4bet is correct (and it feels like it must be), than I think that is best, otherwise I would call.

HOWMANY · #7 10-11-2007, 11:57 AM

I 3bet and happily call a cap. He's passive, but it's online poker and he probably just made a full house, so he raises because how could a full house not win? Live I would generally 3bet and be frustrated and fold to 4bet. If I'm not playing well enough to fold to the 4bet then I don't 3bet.

Keepitsimple · #8 10-11-2007, 12:04 PM

jba, I think a villain like this is capable of a bluff cap some % of the time.

Overseer55 · #9 10-11-2007, 12:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Every time I 3 bet here and tell myself I will fold to a 4 bet they do in fact 4 bet and I talk myself into a call. I would just call, I expect a weak ace would play exactly as he did.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. His AF is 0.8. In my experience, a normal player's river AF is usually less than their average AF...

I'd say that it's ~70% chance that he has an Ace (weak kicker), ~15% chance he has a Jack, and ~15% that he's bluffing. The only time 3-betting is profitable is if he has a Jack.