Check or Bet this river

hoppscot22 · #1 10-03-2007, 05:19 AM

30 60 on FTP

havent really played much with villain (WhoKnewIKnew) dont think hes all that good.

Hes playing 31/18/1.3 over like 400 hands or something.

4 handed i raise A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] utg, villain calls in BB.

flop 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He c/c.

turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

he c/c

river 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

he checks

a. what do we think he has...
b. should we check or bet

whodaman · #2 10-03-2007, 05:26 AM

he could have paired the 3 or 2. He could have Ax or 6x hand. He prob doesn't have spades, a 4, or a 5, or an 8.
Assuming he didn't pair the 7, the best hand he can have here is probably A3, but i dont think it matters. I wouldn't expect any meh player to be taking a c/c c/c c/f line with any hand we beat. So check

hoppscot22 · #3 10-03-2007, 05:31 AM

just to clarify im not so sure the bet would be a bluff

it might be, but is there any value in value betting here ever?

whodaman · #4 10-03-2007, 05:37 AM

18 pfr don't normally have AQ here... so you think he calls with AJ AT A9 more often than a pair?

i dont think its close without serious history...

hoppscot22 · #5 10-03-2007, 05:42 AM

very few people would c/c this flop if they have a pair...

JustZak · #6 10-03-2007, 05:53 AM

since the board is so low, the chance villain has a worse ace is pretty low here. A6 is the only really raggy ace thats possible and A9 and up I'd expect to see more action from at some point. Certainly AQ, AJ and AT would be 3 betting preflop or c/ring the flop or something. However I agree its unlikely villain has a pair here. We're going to get c/red on the flop by any pair or the turn if the 8 hit. Villain could be playing some overcards poorly here, maybe K high or he decided to play something with a 5 or 6 passively. I think we are usually ahead, just not sure what hands are paying us off here.

pb87 · #7 10-03-2007, 02:42 PM

I dont think (m)any worse hands call here... check it down, take the pot, next hand pls

DpR · #8 10-03-2007, 04:08 PM

AF factor is pretty low so I would check, agaisnt avg oppponent it is prob a little better to bet.

HOWMANY · #9 10-03-2007, 04:10 PM

A. Not a pair unless he somehow has a 7
B. Bet

Tryptamean · #10 10-03-2007, 04:17 PM

I think he has Ace hi most of the time here. I would bet and expect to get paid off a lot.