KK overpair faces heat from regular

[shpanko]

Villain is 22/14/2.5 over a few hundred hands. He has struck me as a fairly straight-forward but solid player. Turn is a fold I think yeah?

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BTN: $176.50
SB: $24.2
BB: $105.45
Hero (UTG): $173.40
MP: $120.15
CO: $74.35

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, MP calls $3.50, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($11, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, MP calls $8, BB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($27, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $73</font>

Hero???


My intention on the turn was to bet a fold to a raise. I thought he might check behind with a Q or weaker hand but might call a bet. Comments on this strategy and whether I should fold to a raise at this point.

[vampireslayer123]

I cant see how you can call, although I would like to hear from the others.

There is a very small chance he has AQ or KQ, in which case you are a huge favorite. Other than those situations, you are either a 3.5 to 1 dog (if he has two pair) about a 23 to 1 dog (if he has a set) or drawing dead to his straight. Moreover, you dont have position and you will never know if your "out" that you catch on the river is really an out.

This all screams fold to me, but I am pretty weak and would like to hear the more aggressive players chime in.

[epdaws]

While the Baluga idea has been confused a bit of late, here is a perfect spot for it, imo.

[Klompy]

I check this turn, or at least bet less, as played I think it's a fold

[AE6]

fold, given his stats and your read on him i think this is a set the huge majority of the time.

[Chipchucker5]

What is the Baluga idea?

[Mossberg]

If you're going to bet this turn card you need to be prepared to fold to a raise from this guy. If you see him as straightforward, then I think B/F on the turn is optimal, but I would definitely bet a bit less.

[AE6]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the Baluga idea?

[/ QUOTE ]
baluga theorem says that if you are raised on the turn, one pair is usually no good.

[shpanko]

Yeah I think my turn bet size was to large. I think that my bet there will usually fold out weaker hands and get raised by better hands. A bet of ~18 would probably be best.

At the time my thinking was that if I bet 25 and was raised I would be certain I was beat. But that raise doesnt get the most value for sure.

Anyway after saying I'd fold naturally I talked myself into a shove and of course he called with 77 MHING. Thanks for the replies. I think this was probably the easiest spot I've had in a while to fold an overpair and I still couldn't do it. I've still got a ways to go.

[jballer]

bet/fold turn is standard....theres no way hes making this raise with KQ AQ which is all you beat at this point.