AA vs 2p2er

[castigar]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $79.40
BB: $24.65
UTG: $24.90
BTN: $0.00

Reads: <font color="blue">Vilain is 25/17 on 80 hands.

I've played a few hands with him in the last 45mins-1h and won 2 nice pots from him.

His line screemed Flush to me. What do you guys think?

If you say to call, please tell me if you would have called if the last card was a blank. Thanks</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
2 folds, BTN calls $0.15, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, BTN calls $0.75

Flop: ($2) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BTN checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $4.65</font>, Hero calls $3.15

Turn: ($11.30) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BTN bets $8.55</font>, Hero calls $8.55

River: ($28.40) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BTN bets all-in for $18.10</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $18.10 returned to BTN

Pot Size: $28.40 ($1.40 Rake)

[Chargers In 07]

minus the river fold this looks good. why can't he have a lower set? I'd say it's fairly likely.

edit: nvm the turn is total spew if you fold this river. you don't have odds and you have a transparant draw.

[mdm13]

It may very well be a flush, but you are getting 2.5:1 on your money so call and hope he has a lower set. If the last card had not made your set or flush and he shoved I would fold.

[checktheriver]

Villain's range seems to be mainly sets and draws, given his limp preflop he's likely to have a small pp or scs. You might reraise flop. As played fold to the turn bet you only beat a bluff. As played call that river bet with your top set.

[Pokey]

The converter screwed up on you. What were the positions? It looks like you are in the SB, but you're acting last in the hand. In further consideration, it looks like "BTN" was the small blind and you were the big blind. If that's the case, you can't fold this river. You've shown entirely too much weakness to lay down top set for a 2/3rds-pot raise in a blind battle. If you're terrified of the flush, fold the turn; otherwise, call the river, too. You're committed no matter what comes.

Besides, you've got the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you see the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] -- what flush draw are you putting him on, here? The guy is tight and aggressive; do we really think he's just completing the small blind with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? Or do we really think he's calling a 4xBB raise OOP with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? I just find these holdings entirely too unlikely.

Count it up:

22, six combinations.
66, six combinations.
88, six combinations.
KK (slowplayed -- theoretically possible), six combinations.
Pocket pair 99-QQ, 24 combinations, but oddly played, so unlikely.

Let's say he plays pocket deuces, sixes, and eights this way all the time, and he plays 99-KK this way one time in six. That gives us 24 combinations of cards that we beat soundly.

For the flush, we have nine remaining clubs. We can rule out holdings like Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and even 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Let's say he'll only play the suited connectors plus Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] this way, considering the preflop action. If that's the case, we're talking about seven likely combinations. Even without considering any total bluffs we're a 24-to-7 favorite to win in a pot that's offering us over 2.5-to-1 odds.

In fact, the pot odds at the river are so tasty that we must call even if we include every possible combination of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his range (36 combinations). That means we're getting 2.5-to-1 when we're going to win two times in five.

If you were going to fold this hand, it had to be on the turn. Given that you've got rockets and it's a blind-vs-blind battle, you cannot fold the turn, so you MUST call this river when you hit your set: it's a moral imperitive.

[Peter Harris]

that river fold makes baby jesus cry.

[castigar]

Gotta love when the math genius answers my posts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I did some bad calls all weekend long so when I saw this one I convinced myself that a fold was the better option. I must say I only thought about the flush at the time, not smaller sets.

Btw, I was BB and he was SB.

[Pokey]

How sad is it that I got the math wrong?

Set combinations are three each, not six. (Divide by two, stupid!) That means nine possible sets, reducing his likely holdings to about 15. If you increase the odds that he's got a medium pair, this can go back up, but even without it we're getting 15-to-7 and we're a favorite against his likely range. Even against his maximum theoretical range we're about neutral on EV, and I just don't see him calling the preflop reraise with 93s. And EVEN if he did, then we have to throw in the missed straight draws as possibilities, semi-bluffing the flop and turn and bluffing the river.

I stand by my suggestion that we call this river bet, but I repudiate my bad math. Sorry!

[NL Newbie]

Rivers a high varience card :P but you gotta call, you've gone ahead of sets.

His line looks like a combodraw(FD+) or set.

[DennisGPunkt]

Why the hell do you call the turn?

PUSH, SHOVE, WHATEVER, BUT GET IT IN THERE!!! ZOMG!