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#1
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
One reason you shove here with AK vs. calling is that you really want to see all 5 cards vs. 22-QQ, instead of just 3.
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#2
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
[ QUOTE ]
One reason you shove here with AK vs. calling is that you really want to see all 5 cards vs. 22-QQ, instead of just 3. [/ QUOTE ] And normally that's exactly what I would say, but again nobody's really talking about the fact that both of us are so deep. Again, easy push for that reason with 20-30 BBs, but 50... |
#3
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
Just at first glance, i think calling looks kinda bad here for a few reasons:
- we're not closing the action, cold caller isn't going anywhere, probably jamming, and presumably BB shoves, then i guess we fold? i dunno. - AK is the obvious scare cards, when we hit, we wont get paid easily/as often - we're just gonna be folding on most flops so, i shove, but i think folding is likely better than ccalling |
#4
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
fwiw stumpy did great great work in this thread.
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#5
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
[ QUOTE ]
Particularly because we're 5 from the money. The $60 bubble payout is worth quite a few chips, so a 50/50 is no good without a lot of overlay. 2000 players, $25 entry, pays $60 to top 180. (This is approx for the 25+2.50 double stack.) After the bubble each chip is worth 0.6533 cents. $60 = 9183 chips. If we had a play here that was worth +9000 chips on average, but we went broke 50% of the time, folding would be a better option. [/ QUOTE ] I thought this was especially interesting. I hadn't really seen a way to put numbers behind this before. 9000 chips is a lot of chips to win on average, too, so thats a pretty big cev/ev seperation. |
#6
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
exit,
im not sure if its accurate but its certainly an interesting way of looking at it. conceptually something bothers me about it. maybe it should be its own thread one way or another? |
#7
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
[ QUOTE ]
exit, im not sure if its accurate but its certainly an interesting way of looking at it. conceptually something bothers me about it. maybe it should be its own thread one way or another? [/ QUOTE ] yea, i've been playing with it for a bit now, it's not exactly right for sure, because a very big stack in his model would have a higher than possible EV, but the idea is interesting. i can't figure out how to make it work better though. |
#8
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Particularly because we're 5 from the money. The $60 bubble payout is worth quite a few chips, so a 50/50 is no good without a lot of overlay. 2000 players, $25 entry, pays $60 to top 180. (This is approx for the 25+2.50 double stack.) After the bubble each chip is worth 0.6533 cents. $60 = 9183 chips. If we had a play here that was worth +9000 chips on average, but we went broke 50% of the time, folding would be a better option. [/ QUOTE ] I thought this was especially interesting. I hadn't really seen a way to put numbers behind this before. 9000 chips is a lot of chips to win on average, too, so thats a pretty big cev/ev seperation. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, it's wrong though, there were only something like 1200 in this. First was 7500 maybe? It's not double stacked, it's the nightly 8PM EST tourney. |
#9
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
i think this is actually a interesting spot, only because were so deep. I mean a 100k pot b4 the money in a freezeout is pretty sick. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
Ok, well first i would say calling sucks, you have no implied odds with AK, infact you have reverse implied odds, when he has AA or KK, etc. Your basically never going to stack him, unless the flop is like KKK or AAK, which obviously doesn't happen to often. So calling is out of the question. Also when we decided the flat, MP2 could easilyyyy just stick it in there, then we would have to fold when the BB shoves. Folding? I actually think its pretty close between folding and shoving. I think randoms arent raising as light as the OP said, I think hes raising a pretty small range here. We would still have a huge stack and no one has to know you folded AK. Shoving--I think this is marginally best, i wouldn't fault a shove or a fold here, as with these stacks, were too shallow to flat and were almost (key word-almost [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) too deep to shove. |
#10
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Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
[ QUOTE ]
Just at first glance, i think calling looks kinda bad here for a few reasons: - we're not closing the action, cold caller isn't going anywhere, probably jamming, and presumably BB shoves, then i guess we fold? i dunno. - AK is the obvious scare cards, when we hit, we wont get paid easily/as often - we're just gonna be folding on most flops so, i shove, but i think folding is likely better than ccalling [/ QUOTE ] See the directly above post. Also, although implied odds certainly matter, I think I'm getting express odds to hit if I call here given my read that Mp2 will call. |
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