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#1
07-31-2007, 12:41 AM
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TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
Villain is 13/8/2.13 over 80ish hands. I've been splashing around in some pots, mostly in position though. My numbers are 20.8/11.3/2.18 for 115 hands.
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) Hero (SB): $21.55 BB: $10.95 UTG: $32.95 MP: $8.10 CO: $17.50 BTN: $3.80 Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players) 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.30</font>, BB calls $0.20 Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to BB Flop: ($0.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $0.40</font>, BB calls $0.40 I'm thinking this villain would've re-raised me on the flop with a set to charge possible draws. Only likely two-pair hands on flop for him might be 56 of clubs or diamonds. Turn: ($1.40) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $0.80</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $2.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero </font>??? Villain could be re-raising with TPGK here, and he might've been holding jt for two-pair now. Slowplayed set is possible here, but I'm guessing unlikely. I have ~10(?) outs against the range I've put him on and maybe some decent fold equity against a villain this tight. Is shoving +EV here? 
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#2
07-31-2007, 12:45 AM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
Shove.
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#3
07-31-2007, 01:24 AM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
I prefer to make it $10 here.
I dont think villain is calling a $20 raise here but he may call $10. Shove river.
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#5
07-31-2007, 01:53 AM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
Oh right, my bad.
Yeah shove turn.
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#6
07-31-2007, 01:59 AM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
I see a lot of 1st level thinking here, what hands do we put the villain on that c/call the flop and then donk the turn??
How did the turn help this villain so he thinks that he should bet out???? And look at the guys stats, he is an uber nit here, don't we think this is a really weird spot for him to bluff??
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#8
07-31-2007, 02:22 AM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
Worm,
I think this is a perfect spot for him to bluff. He has position and no draws came through on the turn, so it's unlikely that I improved. If he gives me credit for being an observant player, he should think that I've noticed how tight he's been playing and may think a bluff has a good chance of taking down the pot. I might just be trying to rationalize a push though. What range do you give villain after his turn raise?
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#9
07-31-2007, 04:51 AM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
3-betting turn is horrendous. He only calls with better hands, and most don't do this on the turn with a draw, so we are beat ALOT of the time he calls.
Call and spike a flush, higher 2pr or trips on the river.
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#10
07-31-2007, 03:49 PM
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Re: TP + FD OOP facing turn raise from TAG. Shove?
[ QUOTE ]
He only calls with better hands [/ QUOTE ] Like what? I've given him a range. Do you think this range is accurate? If so, why not? [ QUOTE ] most don't do this on the turn with a draw [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. I've seen this from villains with stats as tight as the one in this hand. [ QUOTE ] so we are beat ALOT of the time he calls [/ QUOTE ] But I want to know how often people think he folds to a shove. You failed to address the question in my OP regarding fold equity. Do I have any given the range I've put him on? If so, how much?
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