Some EV calculations for TPTK and overpairs

[gregorio]

So we have TP or an overpair, and all the sudden villain gets all aggressive and we’re not sure what to do. Can we call or shove with our overpair, or are we just donking off our stack with a 1 pair hand getting out money in really badly? Here are some equity calculations to help us decide.

In each hand, we have TPTK or an overpair on a dry flop (next time I will look at flops with lots of draws), and villain is going to have a set, TPTK, or an overpair. Let’s see what sorts of hands we need to get the money in good vs. villain’s range. Anything just a little below 50% equity, I am assuming there is enough dead money already in the pot that it is still +EV to get it all in.

1st flop:

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Villain is being aggressive enough with a big raise or a shove that we put them on a range of AJ, 33, 77, JJ-QQ (let’s assume their pre-flop play rules out KK+)

So what is our equity against this range?
AJ we have 24% equity
QQ we have 49% equity
KK+ we have 57% equity
So we don’t have the equity to stack off here with less than QQ.

If we add KK and AA into villain’s range, our equity is now:
AJ 21%
QQ 34%
KK 49%
AA 63%
Now we don’t have the equity to stack off with less than KK.


2nd flop, with lower cards:

9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain is being aggressive enough with a big raise or a shove that we put them on a range of A9, 33, 55, 99-QQ (let’s assume their pre-flop play rules out KK+)

With the lower flop, our overpairs have a little better equity:
A9 22%
TT 34%
JJ 49%
QQ 63%
KK 68%
AA 69%
So we don’t have the equity to stack off here with less than JJ.


If we add KK and AA into villain’s range, our equity is now:
A9 23%
TT 27%
JJ 38%
QQ 49%
KK 60%
AA 72%
Now we don’t have the equity to stack off with less than QQ.


3rd flop, with even lower cards:

7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain is being aggressive enough with a big raise or a shove that we put them on a range of A7, 33, 55, 77-QQ (let’s assume their pre-flop play rules out KK+)

With the even lower flop, our overpairs have still better equity:
A7 23%
88 29%
99 39%
TT 48%
JJ 59%
QQ 69%
KK 72%
AA 74%
We now have enough equity to stack off with TT+.

If we add KK and AA into villain’s range, our equity is now:
A7 23%
88 25%
99 33%
TT 40%
JJ 48%
QQ 57%
KK 65%
AA 75%
and we can stack off with JJ+.

There are some possible pair+gutshot draws here we can maybe add to villain’s range on this board of

7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

So let’s give villain a range of A7, 33, 55, 77-QQ, plus 76s, 65s, 54s and 43s and see how that affects our equity. Now it is:
A7 32%
88 37%
99 44%
TT 51%
JJ 60%
QQ 68%
KK 70%
AA 72%

These draws give us better equity, but the minimum hand in which we have enough equity to stack off remains the same, TT+, or JJ+ if we add KK-AA to villain’s range.

[x]tl/dr

[MAA]

This is goodd though I don't think most vilains would play A7 the same as a set here for example in the last example.

[billip62]

Amazing post, super useful. cheers gregorio