*** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[kyro]

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kyro and others,

Any belief in a team coming off a short week after a Monday night win (i.e.: hangover)?

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It's not something I've been factoring into any of my decisions thus far, but it's something I'll probably start looking into in the future.

If you're referring to Seattle v Chicago, Seattle didn't exactly have to work hard to beat SF, so I wouldn't put too much stock into it.

[kyro]

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Can anyone find any value in taking the under +40.00 in the PIT game? Seems like with the #1 ranked defense in the league, shutting out NYJ seems reasonable, while giving PIT 1.25 touchdowns per quarter seems about spot on.

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If that's your feeling, you should be loading up on Pit -9.5

I think the line is OK, though if I had to bet I'd go with the over. The Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. That alone is enough to keep me away from betting the under on a game below 42.

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That being said, the Steelers, if they get up early, will probably run all day, which is a good enough reason not to touch the over. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I don't particularly like playing with totals when the two teams have completely opposite games on each side of the ball. For example, Pitt should be able to score often, and the Jets not so often (theoretically), so where exactly should the total fall?

[bmwguy525]

Yeah I guess I'll lay off, I'm just trying to find max value in a game that's so lopsided. -9.5 is just fine by me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kyro]

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Yeah I guess I'll lay off, I'm just trying to find max value in a game that's so lopsided. -9.5 is just fine by me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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If I wasn't including MOV in my analysis, and just DVOA, I'd be all over the Jets. Especially given how inconsistent the Steelers have been on the road this year. I just cannot, in good faith, lay 9.5 points on a team that's 2-2 on the road, against a team that since the Week 1 Pats game, is 1-3 at home with losses of 7, 10 and 3 points, all to decent teams.

[kyro]

Seahawks/Bears U37.5
Risk 1u to win .91u

Since Griese torched Minnesota's secondary for 381 yards, Chicago has once again regressed into a terrible offensive football team. I predicted 10 points max for the worst offense in the league last week, and they scored 0 (though they did end up in the red zone twice). I expect much of the same from the second worst offense in the league.

The Seahawks have been over 37 points 5/9 times this season. Their opponents: Cardinals, Bengals, Saints, Rams, Browns. Only the Rams have a very weak offense, but the Seahawks put up 33 on their defense, and the total was 39. The Seahawks have also been under their opponent's average total 7/9 times. The two times they weren't, they totaled 43 with the Cards (42.5 average) and 63 in an OT game with the Browns (57 average)

Take the under.

[RichGangi]

bump

[RichGangi]

Im liking STL -3 and SEA -5 1/2 for 1 unit each.

[Jazzy3113]

can pitt get a stop one time? one time pls.

[furyshade]

thx terrel

[Borsberg]

hey guys I placed this 10-pt teaser today. is there any chance that a book will cancel it if its a winner?

Dallas -1.5
Wash +21.5
N.E. -6.5