(razz) thoughts on this tournament hand

[RustyBrooks]

After some simulation it appears that if he has paired his 3, I'm a 3:1 favorite, and if he hasn't, and he has 2 wheel cards, then he's a 3:1 favorite. If he has 2 unpaired wheel cards, on the whole it's 50:50 but it's WA/WB. I'm not that familiar with how to deal with cases like that when you have been representing a big hand and you've gotten to 6th.

[Andy B]

I'm assuming that you're not suggesting that Rusty shouldn't raise the river. Say that the other guy will cap with any Six and nothing else. He has one possible Six that beats Rusty, and two that don't. That's 2:1 against. Rusty has a choice between calling the three-bet and making it four bets. The other guy can't re-raise, so Rusty is giving even money on that one bet. Even if the other guy won't cap every time with his rougher Sixes, Rusty's got an edge, right?

And if Rusty blows this pot, he's kinda screwed whether he caps or not.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that you're not suggesting that Rusty shouldn't raise the river. Say that the other guy will cap with any Six and nothing else. He has one possible Six that beats Rusty, and two that don't. That's 2:1 against. Rusty has a choice between calling the three-bet and making it four bets. The other guy can't re-raise, so Rusty is giving even money on that one bet. Even if the other guy won't cap every time with his rougher Sixes, Rusty's got an edge, right?

And if Rusty blows this pot, he's kinda screwed whether he caps or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, the first raise was standard, and in a cash game the cap is too.

[jbrennen]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously if you can play a legitimate hand as a short stack in a tournament consider yourself very lucky. You get dealt a three card six or better less than 6% of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[Mathew82]

Correct -

24x20x16=7680/52x51x50=132600

7680/132600=0.0579x100= 5.79%

This is what happens when you are lazy and just try and remember the answer....lol

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
It would be rare that a good player would finish in the last quarter of a 100 player tournament, I say rare because sometimes you play correctly and just get donked to death. I would say about 60-70% of the time they would make the top 50 and maybe around 30-35% of the time make the top 25. Of course this is just pure speculation...lol

[/ QUOTE ]
Here are some stats to shoot for:

<u>Avg. Finish</u>
Early....2% (bottom 10%)
EM.....11% (20%)
Mid....34% (40%)
ML.....30% (20%)
Late...23% (top 10%)

[RustyBrooks]

OK. I guess I'm doing OK then. In tournaments with 80 or more so far I'm in the top 40% every time and the top 20%, about 25% of the time. No final tables yet and not much money to speak of.