Quick question on implied odds

[Brocken]

My brain's quite happy working this stuff out when I have a template to work from but the initial turning-the-problem-into-a-template confuses me. It's a fairly simple question but it's something that I'd like to bring into my though process while playing hands.

I have a set and I'm absolutely sure I have my opponent beaten at this time.
I've put him on either a four flush or two pair or some other hand that is good but not as good as mine.
I give him a 60% chance of having the flush draw and 40% chance of having another good hand.
There's just the river card to come.
There's $100 in the pot.
I have position.
I'm obviously raising any bet if the flush card doesn't come.
I'm willing to call anything up to 3/4 of the pot should the flush draw hit.

How much do I need to bet on the turn in order to offer my opponent unprofitable implied odds?


Also, could you point out any flawed thinking in that please [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RobNottsUk]

Depends on how large a bet you're willing to call on the river!

So to answer the question, you'll need to decide whether his 2 pair is going to beat your set, and whether the sooted card putting a flush on board gives you quads.

Then how often it'll be a bluff on the river, with 2 pair should the flush (non-pairing come), and how much that player will lose making a flush on a paired board.

If you could be sure it's a flush, then you'ld be happy with a set if they call a 1/2 pot bet, as you can fold on the river.

With 2 possibilities, you should bet more, especially if you can expect to be called by the flush wrongly.

If your opponent bluffs by Pushing In, and Pushes In with the Nuts, then you have to bet more on the turn to deny implied odds, of folding incorrectly or calling incorrectly on the river.

[GeeBeeQED]

I like Robs remarks, I'd like to add, If the flush card comes, I'm betting the river if he checks. For me not to bet on the end he'd have to be a pure "any two suited" donk and I'd have to have some sort of additional read on him to verify my suspicions at the moment the flush scare card hits. Repeat your turn bet here and you'll win more in the long run than trying to hide from the occasional possible check raise. Missing this bet (when a scare card hits the river) is a very common mistake I see in players, nearly all females and 60 something males. Many take it to the point you won't ever see them bet on the river without the pure nuts or very close to it.

Dave