$8/$16 Foxwoods - See A River?

[Omaha8sPoker]

Just curious people's opinions on this...It's probably a very rudamentary Omaha question so I apologize, but I haven't played a lot of full ring Limit Omaha 8/b lately...

I raise in the hijack with A932, suited to the A...I get 5 (maybe 6) callers who see a flop of Q84 rainbow (POT: = $80-$100)...The guy to my right bets out and it gets called around...

The bet out from this guy is definitely 2 pair or a set (EDIT: very slim chance he may have KK, but doubtful)...

TURN: 4 (POT: $120 - $148)

The original bettor bets, do you call here since the action is directly to the right of you and you don't know if there will be any callers...

I think I may have made the wrong decision here and called...My rationale here for calling was that if he was on a hand like Q8 an A would gimmie a scoop and my low is uncounterfeitable...I guess since I put him on two pair/set there are way too many other possibilities that already give him a made full house and I don't know if there might be another A2 out there who may call to chase...I thought the odds of somebody chasing a naked A2 was pretty low and thought I may get heads up with the original bettor...Also the pot was pretty juicy with all the dead money in there...Obviously if I just had a naked A2 I would have folded on the turn...

[bbartlog]

If you got five callers for a preflop raise and everyone called the flop bet as well, then there's 9BB in the pot on the turn. Since you have (with counterfeit protection) half a chance at half the pot (roughly), this would seem to be a call *if* you knew you only had to pay one BB.
However, I think you have to worry both about getting raised by someone acting after you, and also about someone else making the same low as you. If six saw the flop and six went to the turn, then the odds of someone chasing a naked A2 would appear to be high, not low.
Anyway, I would normally call here. Even if you *know* someone else has A2, calling is still close to neutral expectation as long as no one raises after you act. It's only when you have to pay yet another BB to see the river and you get quartered if the low comes that calling becomes -EV.

[Omaha8sPoker]

I actually wasn't too worried about a naked A2 calling...With a board of that texture I hadn't seen anybody get really "out of line" and chase with just a naked A2...Even in a pot that big...

As far as the raise goes, yup that would have sucked...But the game was fairly passive as far as raising went...

I think you are probably correct in your analysis that it is a probably fairly neutral in calling...The fact that he might have Q8 here (sometimes) probably helps me in the "calculation" with the A coming giving me the whole thing...

[WMB]

call, you're getting the right price.

[howzit]

call down every street given your relative position. keep 'em in.

i don't know if it's correct, but you might make money in the long run if you raise the flop if somebody in early position bet out on the flop and it's six way action. having a backdoor flush draw also would give you more edge. can somebody check this while i'm at work?

[PokerJans]

"Obviously if I just had a naked A2 I would have folded on the turn... "

No

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
"Obviously if I just had a naked A2 I would have folded on the turn... "

No

[/ QUOTE ]

It is six- or seven-handed! Someone do the math, but this is not a river fold unless you are near certain to be facing multiple bets.

[Rush17]

It's a definite call with that many players AND for the fact that it was raised before the flop, and knowing that the game was passive, makes it that less likely of it coming back to you for multiple bets. Having counterfeit protection makes it that much easier, too, but even without it, the pot is big enough to call.

If you do make your low on the river, and everyone winds up checking to the last aggressor...make sure you just call because at that point you'd be trying to get as many overcalls as possible (hopefully with 2nd nut lows) so you can show a profit. And, of course, just calling also softens the blow for the times that you get 1/4'd...or worse.

[Buzz]

Approximately, you figure to make low by yourself roughly 30% and split low with an opponent roughly 20%.

If the pot is $128 (eight big bets) at the start of the 3rd betting round, and if it costs you $16 (one big bet) to see whether or not you'll make low on the river, and if one of the three players behind you calls, and if both of the two contributors to this betting round also contribute on the river, then you are getting about five to one implied pot odds for half the pot and about three to two implied pot odds for a quarter of the pot.

Very roughly,
50% you lose one big bet
30% you win five big bets
20% you win 1.5 big bets.

Thus:
5*.3+1.5*.2-1*0.5 =
1.5+.3-.5

If that total is positive, then you have favorable odds to see the river. If it is negative, then you should fold.

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[ QUOTE ]
Obviously if I just had a naked A2 I would have folded on the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]No.

With a bare ace-deuce, in addition to sometimes getting quartered, you sometimes get counterfeited. Instead of winning low 30% and splitting low 20%, you win low like 23% and split like 15%, something like that. (That's very crude, but close enough).

Then 5*.23+1.5*.15-1*.65 =
1.15+.22-.65

Again, if the total is positive (and it is), you have favorable odds to see the river.

So you're obviously in better shape to see the river with the counterfeit protection (A239), but even with A2K9, you still have favorable odds to see the river. In either case, you should see the river.

Buzz

[Omaha8sPoker]

Interesting...I wouldn't think that it would work with being naked...Thanks for the math Buzz...

As far as raising the flop, with the hand I had and knowing what the other guy had I think it would be more positive to draw more people into the pot since any low that comes makes my hand...