25-50 hand vs Diablo

[El Diablo]

Jason,

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1) How poorly I generally play

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...against good players

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2) How good I am for his game

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I enjoy having Strassa in the game, that is true.

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3) How I should not be playing in most of the 25-50 and higher games that i sit in on UB

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That's incorrect. I think about half the games you sit in are good games for you.

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He is very clear that KKF, bruiser, and most of the 25-50 regulars (including gandi9) are far better than I am.

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That is true. But I do think Strassa is pretty good for a tourney donkey.

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He thinks I give way too much action, am way too loose, and am a "[censored] terrible" hand reader.

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This is true.

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So in terms of diablo thinking I'm not an idiot, I wouldnt be so sure.

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No, I don't think you're an idiot.

[El Diablo]

mike,

99/88 is not realistic for me to have here under normal conditions. Axh, KQh are types of hands that I could definitely have.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

Diablo is a sissy so yes, I enjoy humping him off pots in position. He knows I can call the flop with nothing, and that I make many players (perhaps to my detriment) fire 2 barrels often. I'm less likely to get that cute against diablo because he generally is good at interpreting my timing and patterns and I think picks good spots to move on me. But I still call a decent amount of his flop bets with a wide range and he knows this.

I do think that 88-JJ are probably not realistic for el D in this spot. I do think, however, that any type of flush draw, or over-card/gutshot, double gutter, etc. type hand is possible. I really don't see Diablo making a move here with something as little as overcards.

-Jason

[BobboFitos]

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yea, exactly. What I also ment by it is TT doesnt fare great vs the overpair range, although getting the price he is, he doesnt need to beat "half" the range, just a little more then a third of it. It's pretty close either way.

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i don't think it's close at all. i haven't logged that many hands with diablo, and they were at full ring, so i suppose he could have a wider range here given this hand was at 6-max, but i have very seldom seen him stick his stack in without the goods. if he doesn't have JJ+ here, he has at least Ahxh. to call this you'd have to be hoping (praying) that diablo would do this with 99/88 or overcards without a flush draw, and he simply won't be on those hands often enough.

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If we boil it down to 88, 99, [TT], JJ, QQ, KK, AA, it's close because we're a 2:1 dog behind getting about that price. Throw in 1 combo of a split where a call is correct (due to overlay) and voila, it's very close. Thats my gorrila math.

if you DO throw in a semibluff, it swings it even more to a call, as we're obviously correct in calling getting 2:1 when we're 2:1 + ahead. :P

Of course, if you now say "oh, but diablo wouldnt move in there with 88 or 99", (and I dont think that's true, one overpair vs strassa is closely related to the other, the only equity gap being an over vs a small op not being live vs a big overpair in the event of a semibluff) then it swings to a fold.

thats how I believe its close either way. Basically, if I folded, I'd never let diablo know I was that strong, and if I called (which I would) I would let him know that I would "never" fold that there (whether thats true or not - in fact, if in the future he knows I would never lay down a small overpair, it makes my decisions easier in the future, so that statement becomes false)

[BobboFitos]

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mike,

99/88 is not realistic for me to have here under normal conditions. Axh, KQh are types of hands that I could definitely have.

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Diablo, why is 99 and 88 not realistic? I think they are both logical, unless:
1. You'd open limp those hands shorthanded rather then open raise
2. You would shut down and effectively let strassa CTB vs those small overpairs

Am I missing something? It seems the flop bet, and subsequent turn check, are both consistant with how those are played. (How I would, atleast) I mean, unless you bet/fold the turn with those, I guess.. ;/

[edge]

Honestly, I don't think it matters what you do on the turn. He has a better overpair than you some of the time, and he has a draw with overcards some of the time. He has naked overcards or a weaker pair than you some of the time. It's almost impossible to judge the probability that he holds each hand as a neutral observer; it all depends on the table texture and all of those things that you can't really tell other people. Call, fold, whatever. I'd probably call because I don't lay down overpairs with 100 BB stacks in a raised pot against an aggressive good player.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

Diablo would not limp 88/99 here ever.

I also think he would probably be more likely to check-call the turn bet with 88-99 then evaluate the river, on the assumption that I'd likely check behind the turn with a draw, top pair, and be betting with hands he either has 2 outs against, or hands that have at most 6 outs to improve to beat him.

He also would be less likely to CR ai with 88 99 because he suspects 88-JJ is a very reasonable holding for me to have here. If he CR 88-99, there are that many fewer worse hands that I can pay him off with.

-Jason

[mikech]

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Diablo, why is 99 and 88 not realistic?

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bobbo, do you often c/r-push the turn for your full stack with 99/88 if there are no overcards on the board? i realize i'm generalizing and being simplistic, and maybe it's the david sklansky part of me talking, but i almost never do that. i suspect diablo rarely does it either, save perhaps against the laggiest of maniacs.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

Edge,

I think this is a pretty lazy, useless analysis. Sure, there are obvious assumptions you have to make, but as with any type of analysis/model building in the real world, assumptions are constantly made in order to simplify problems into forms that can be worked with. Timing, table texture, and the stuff we talked about two months ago are all obvious factors... That doesnt mean we can't really talk about this hand.

-Jason

[mikech]

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He has a better overpair than you most of the time, and he has a draw with overcards some of the time. He has naked overcards or a weaker pair than you almost none of the time.

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fyp.

i think a lot of you are making a big mistake in thinking something like, "it's diablo, he's trying to push me off my hand, i can't let him run over me," etc etc. the truth is, the line that diablo has taken in this hand isn't trying to move you off your hand, he's trying to get paid off; and most of you, apparently, want to pay him off.