Killer App for Football Sabermetrics Nuts.

[Jeff W]

Front Office Football 2007

Front Office Football (FOF) is a professional football career management/gameplanning simulation. You control all aspects of the team, from Drafting to Negotiations to Game Planning. I am in two Multiplayer Leagues and it's great fun if you're a stat nerd. Here are some screen shots to give you a taste of what the game is like:



That's my #1 RB taken in the 10th round of the initial preference draft for this multiplayer league. The teams and players in this league are Fictional. Many hardcore FOF veterans prefer fictional universes, but the game ships with real players and teams.



This is one of the game planning screens. You can set every fraction of a percent or you can let the AI run game planning for you as I did here. If you control your own game plans, you must be careful to run a balanced strategy or the opposing teams will shred you. The game designer, Jim Gindin, works tirelessly to make sure the game engine is accurate. Consider this excerpt from the manual:

I quickly realized that basing player ratings on the basic set of common statistics was not going to provide a realistic simulation. And if Front Office Football is going to have a lot of replay value, it must have a realistic game simulation powering the results. Why should you pay $20 million for a top-notch linebacker if he's not going to have a realistic effect on the outcome of your games?

As a result, I took the play-by-play information for all of last season's games, generating a profile of all the rushing plays by distance and direction. The net result was a grid of every running back and team matched against each opposing defense.

I could then normalize each running back by modifying his averages and standard deviations against each defense. In a similar manner, I rated offensive linemen based on the average running play in their direction. Since linemen often have set plays that involve them in rushes in other locations, a portion of their rating is based on all running plays. These, too, were modified by the average runs against each defense.

Here's a piece of the chart I compiled for running plays:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Run Direction ALL Left End Left Tackle Left Guard Up Middle
Factor Mean StDev Mean StDev Mean StDev Mean StDev Mean StDev
All Plays 4.16 6.27 5.02 7.19 4.39 6.75 3.85 5.75 3.73 5.47
3rd and 1 or 2 3.27 6.29 3.94 7.21 3.45 6.77 3.02 5.77 2.93 5.49</pre><hr />

So, why would anyone choose to run up the middle? In fact, since there are some teams that direct more than half of their running plays up the middle, are professional coaches out of their minds? Well, no. First of all, variety is important. If you run too often in a specific direction, the defense will adjust. And secondly, a lower standard deviation means there is less of a chance the run will go for a loss or a zero or one-yard gain. If you need just one or two yards, a run up the middle is often the best choice.

If you're constantly running around end, the high standard deviation for those runs means you'll be much more frequently tackled for a loss. Generally, you want about 30 percent of your runs right up the middle and only about 10 percent around each end, the rest directed inside or outside the tackles. Each team has its specific strengths, and part of the success of your running game will depend on your ability to recognize the strengths of your offensive line and the weaknesses in opposing defenses.[/b]

I encourage you to give the game a shot if it sounds interesting. Check out Front Office Central or post in this thread if you want to learn more.

[LionelHutz00]

OK, this looks awesome. I play Out of the Park Baseball, which is a comparable game for baseball. I didn't know that there was a similar game for pro football. Thanks.

[mosdef]

Looks like one of those fun things that I no longer have time for.

By the way, I don't think there's such a thing as "football sabrmetrics". Sabrmetrics comes from Society of American Baseball Research.

[joel2006]

There is such a thing as football sabrmetrics, check out Foootballoutsiders.com.
Acronym aside, sabrmetrics' can be taken to mean an innovative statistical analysis of a sport.

[Jack of Arcades]

I believe the term is "safr-metrics" but I'm not even sure if there's a SAFR. For basketball it's APBR-metrics.

[pirateboy]

There are other football sims out there. Total Pro Football was a tad better than FOF, but it's being remodeled.

RIGHT NOW, the best football sim out there is a college football sim called Bowl Bound. It's from greydogsoftware.com and it's amazing. I'm in 2 multiplayer leagues, and it's so much fun. The developers are creating a pro NFL game with the same type of engine, but you will be able to export the BB graduating classes into the pro game. It will be its own little world.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
There are other football sims out there. Total Pro Football was a tad better than FOF, but it's being remodeled.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah, what do you like better about TPF? Most FOFCers consider it to be inferior. I tried the demo and didn't like it but I firmly admit to my FOF-bias since I've been playing it for 7 years now and it would be hard to switch.

[ QUOTE ]
RIGHT NOW, the best football sim out there is a college football sim called Bowl Bound. It's from greydogsoftware.com and it's amazing. I'm in 2 multiplayer leagues, and it's so much fun. The developers are creating a pro NFL game with the same type of engine, but you will be able to export the BB graduating classes into the pro game. It will be its own little world.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard good things about Bowl Bound, but I've found college games(FOF: TCY, Fast Break College Basketball) not to my taste because I don't like recruiting.

[FlyWf]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the term is "safr-metrics" but I'm not even sure if there's a SAFR. For basketball it's APBR-metrics.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure the lexicon is going to settle on "sabermetrics=any analysis of statistics in sports." We've already snuck an "e" in there to make it work phonetically.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure the lexicon is going to settle on "sabermetrics=any analysis of statistics in sports." We've already snuck an "e" in there to make it work phonetically.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Words evolve.

[pirateboy]

[ QUOTE ]


Bah, what do you like better about TPF? Most FOFCers consider it to be inferior. I tried the demo and didn't like it but I firmly admit to my FOF-bias since I've been playing it for 7 years now and it would be hard to switch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only the interface, really. I'm the opposite of you. I played the crap out of TPF (and liked it, except they never really put out huge updates, which pissed off a lot of people), but I only demo'd FOF. Maybe I'd like it if I played more. However, the pro game Arlie Rahn and Grey Dog are developing right now is going to be better than both.



[ QUOTE ]
I've heard good things about Bowl Bound, but I've found college games(FOF: TCY, Fast Break College Basketball) not to my taste because I don't like recruiting.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the best part of the multiplayer world. That's fair though. Recruiting is 60% of the game, in my estimation. It's so much fun. BB has some things, after many updates, that it still needs to improve upon. Player names aren't realistic, though they were taken from real players names. The polls are still really whacky. They also need to include more offensive and defensive philosophies as well as more formations.