#11
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
First, sure I have enough chips to just call. I'm going to push in the next 3 hands with either 1900 or 1700---not a big difference.
Second, I don't have FE at this table; I said that already (my flop AI was called by a limped TT in MP). Third, if I'm going to push, I'm not pushing with 89s when I'm at best a 2:1 dog. I'll wait for Kx or Ax to push. |
#12
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
Most of the time, that's a really bad limp. You have virtually no implied.
If you think you have a reasonable shot at making a play at it, maybe. But that's pretty rare with that kind of stack... |
#13
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
[ QUOTE ]
First, sure I have enough chips to just call. I'm going to push in the next 3 hands with either 1900 or 1700---not a big difference. Second, I don't have FE at this table; I said that already (my flop AI was called by a limped TT in MP). Third, if I'm going to push, I'm not pushing with 89s when I'm at best a 2:1 dog. I'll wait for Kx or Ax to push. [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't push preflop if you don't think you have FE. 89s is probably as good to push with as Ax or Kx if x isn't high. 89s is even versus an underpair and 3-2 versus 2 offsuit over cards. |
#14
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
[ QUOTE ]
89s is probably as good to push with as Ax or Kx if x isn't high. [/ QUOTE ] This is a really good point. jrbick |
#15
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
I don't doubt that that might be true, but I wouldn't push any of those hands in this spot at this table. I believe I'd have better equity if I did not push here, but waited for one of the next few hands, than to push 89s against 2 limpers and active blinds.
So to me, the choice was between folding and calling. Normally if I'm not going to push here, I'm just going to fold. But because the table was so passive, there was a great chance I would be able to see the flop. Given that I'll flop a FD+, 2p+ about 1/5 times, I DO have good implied odds, especially at this table where I might triple up if I push a hand like a pair and a draw. I think it's funny that more than one person has said I don't have implied odds. I'm risking 200 to double up or triple up if I flop well, and other good things might happen such as it gets checked to me and I take it down, or I check through and get a free card or two. To fold 89s on the BTN when it's likely to be 4-5 handed would be a mistake IMO. As the flop came, when I pushed, I put in about 39.6% of the money and I had 36.5% equity against the TT that took up most of his time and eventually called. If he would fold just 4% of the time, my play was +EV. As it turns out, it was basically break even EV to double up. |
#16
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
[ QUOTE ]
I don't doubt that that might be true, but I wouldn't push any of those hands in this spot at this table. I believe I'd have better equity if I did not push here, but waited for one of the next few hands, than to push 89s against 2 limpers and active blinds. So to me, the choice was between folding and calling. Normally if I'm not going to push here, I'm just going to fold. But because the table was so passive, there was a great chance I would be able to see the flop. Given that I'll flop a FD+, 2p+ about 1/5 times, I DO have good implied odds, especially at this table where I might triple up if I push a hand like a pair and a draw. I think it's funny that more than one person has said I don't have implied odds. I'm risking 200 to double up or triple up if I flop well, and other good things might happen such as it gets checked to me and I take it down, or I check through and get a free card or two. To fold 89s on the BTN when it's likely to be 4-5 handed would be a mistake IMO. As the flop came, when I pushed, I put in about 39.6% of the money and I had 36.5% equity against the TT that took up most of his time and eventually called. If he would fold just 4% of the time, my play was +EV. As it turns out, it was basically break even EV to double up. [/ QUOTE ] You are putting in 1700 of 4400, so you are putting in 38.6% not 39.6%. |
#17
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
M,
Nothing wrong with limp/folding limp/pushing if you want to hope for a better spot before the blinds come. I just prefer a gamble in your spot. TT will obv still call but seriously, I don't care that he had TT there. He could also have 55, 66, 77, ATs, AJs (possibly). He could have 44 - and possibly fold as well. This kind of prediction is hard to formulate w/o stack sizes though. jrbick |
#18
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
wow.
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#19
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
OP,
Your limp isn't bad just because you're short. It's bad because 98s doesn't win on the flop, it wins on the river, and you won't hit enough flops hard enough to continue or push anyone off a best hand on a flop that does hit you. The times you hit a draw just means you get to put more chips in as a 2:1 dog to anyone that decides to play with you, such as, on this flop, second pair. That said, your limp is bad but not horrific under the circumstances - okay, you're giving up 100 of those 200 chips, fine. You then 'hit' a flop (note how this plays into what I just said), it's checked to you, and you shove for 2x pot. Congrats, you've successfully telegraphed "I have anything except a king" to everyone at the table and quite properly get called by tens. Would you ever push KJo there? No, you'd make a 600ish bet and then shove the turn, just like you should have done with this draw (or checked behind to save some chips - you are so short that you could've gotten the rest in on a river that hit, anyway.) I would say your flop play is much worse than your PF play. Not knowing what to do on this flop is another reason not to call PF, BTW. |
#20
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Re: 89s Tourney Hand--please advise
Great post, very clear and concise.
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