NL10 3 way pot with TPTK

Brocken · #1 10-11-2007, 02:54 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (10 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG+1 ($1.85)
UTG+2 ($10.43)
MP1 ($10.66)
MP2 ($10.39)
MP3 ($16.66)
Hero ($13.99)
Button ($10)
SB ($1.45)
BB ($4.90)
UTG ($7.63)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.5, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.65) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 bets $1.2, Hero calls $1.20, UTG+2 calls $1.20.

Turn: ($5.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 bets $2.5, Hero ...

Villain is 12/6/1.8

I should be raising this flop right? :/

Pokey · #2 10-11-2007, 03:03 PM

This is an ugly situation.

MP3 is only raising 6% of his hands -- that's a VERY narrow range, and it's dominated by hands that blow you out of the water: literally AA, KK, QQ, and JJ all have you drawing nearly dead, and that's about 1/3rd of his preflop calling range. Given that he's in MP he's probably not even raising all of his USUAL hands (if he's even remotely positionally aware), so that could be even more than 1/3rd of the hands he raises. Throw in TT and 99 and AK and you're looking at most of his preflop raising range, and you're only ahead of AK and TT.

Worse yet, this guy probably isn't betting AK on the flop and CERTAINLY isn't betting AK on the turn. The same goes for TT. You're facing a nit who's not afraid to bet the flop and turn with two opponents in the hand -- he's not bluffing, he's protecting and betting for value. The very best case scenario is that villain has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and is hoping for a cheap card. You also have UTG2 left to act behind you, and it's always possible that he wakes up with a big check-raise here. All told, I'm folding this hand on the turn. You've got nasty reverse implied odds, there's much money left behind, you've got two opponents, the board is very drawy, and an aggressive opponent seems to really like his hand. You're unlikely to get a free showdown and after a river bet you're unlikely to have the best hand but you'll probably be trapped into calling. Save your stack and let it go.

P.S.: against this opponent I'm actually tempted to fold AQo preflop; if it wasn't for your good position, I'd let it go pre. As it stands, you should probably call preflop and raise the flop -- make a nice and cheap bet and hope that you fold out the crowd. If you don't, you'll at least get a free turn card and possibly a free showdown. This is one of those odd situations where raising the flop can actually help keep the pot small. Also, if you get three-bet on the flop you can fold with confidence, knowing you were behind, and save yourself another $8 and some very tough decisions down the road.

Brocken · #3 10-11-2007, 03:06 PM

I was thinking this guy is really tight and there's pretty much nothing I can beat. Nice to know I was thinking along the right lines [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]