Sports Statistics

[MyTurn2Raise]

www.kenpom.com

for college basketball

[7ontheline]

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The NFL QB Rating is a system that is constantly used as a determination of a quarterback's talent on ESPN and FOX and the other networks, and it is a perfect example of a results-oriented statistical system.

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except it actually doesn't measure results that well.

Situation 1: 3rd and 10, QB makes a completion of 8 yards
Situation 2: 3rd and 3, QB makes a completion of 4 yards

Situation 1 would give a QB a better rating than Situation 2, even though the play was a failure, and Situation 2 was a success. even some completed passes for negative yards can boost a QB rating.

another example I found:

Imagine two quarterbacks -- Super Joe and Broadway Joe -- who both drive their teams 30 yards to a touchdown in three plays. Super Joe does it with three 10-yard passes. His completion percentage is 100, and for the drive his rating is 147.9. Broadway Joe throws two incomplete passes, then on a clutch third and long he finds a receiver in the end zone -- touchdown! For the exact same result, his rating is 111.1.

it penalizes guys who throw long, overly credits short passes, and has too big a penalty for INT's. it doesn't include sacks or rushing.

basically, what's wrong with it is the same thing wrong with many other football stat's: it doesn't take into account the situation.

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KBZ, have you read the DVOA stuff on footballoutsiders.com? It is a statistical measure of this exact problem. It rewards a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 but penalizes for it on 1st and 10.

[mmbt0ne]

I am basically in love with trying to come up with worthwhile sports statistics. Unfortunately, I'm still 0 for life.

All I need is one worthwhile stat and *BING* Hawks GM job. Clearly my resume would blow Billy Knight's out of the water.

[ArturiusX]

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Jason,

Others have piped in with stuff about sabermetrics and other more advanced stats. Here's the fundamental problem, though.

Most people who are into sports are casual fans and very results-oriented. So, stats about "last minute comebacks" and "touchdowns thrown" and "points per game" are going to always be more prevalent than stats that are actually more significant to the actual outcome.

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Anacedotally, last minute comebacks can tell you a lot about a team, if it happens frequently enough. I suppose the counter arguement is that stats could say the same thing though, and remove the outlyers, right?

[Pudge714]

mmbt0ne,
Not being a retard>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Billy Knight

[My_Name_Is_Hov]

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Most people who are into sports are casual fans and very results-oriented.

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So true. People have no concept of how huge variance is in sports. Even on this forum with people who should be smart & know poker, the Sporting Events forum is full of insane result-orientation. The reality is that two teams or two players could be nearly identical in true ability, but through variance one of them becomes a "clutch performer" and an all-time legend and the other becomes a "choker".

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reminds me of A-Rod.

I would be interested in seeing the numbers if you fliped a 30/70 coin representing a .300 batter with a 500 at bat sample size representing a full season. I bet if you took several different sets of numbers from that experiment the outcome would be pretty amazing.

[SL__72]

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Football is still a huge problem because the teams don't play enough games, and also there are way more unknown variables you have to factor for.

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Obviously this is still true, but as Football Outsiders point out in their article explaining their stats, if you treat every play in a football game as a separate event, there is a decent amount of data to work with.

"Our new stats explained"

[Jack of Arcades]

The biggest problem with football statistics is getting your hands on them. The stuff available in the official play-by-play are sorely lacking, yet we can get a pretty damned good idea of what's going on there.

[mmbt0ne]

JoA,

Where can one find good raw history for basketball including things like possessions and when people subbed out?

[Jack of Arcades]

Possessions you can get at www.basketball-reference.com

Dunno about sub-in/sub-out histories though.