PLO8 $100: Ingenius or stupid shove

[MattS]

This hand was played in an aggressive 4-handed game. Anybody who puts villains on a set while holding top 2-pair is seeing just monsters under the bed in my opinion.

After the hand I run the numbers myself which are in agreement with the ones Phil has posted. The ev of the shove is dependent on the range of hands UTG calls with. But I can not imagine that the shove will be largly -ev .

[rando]

In thinking about the analysis provided, I'm looking at the short-handed play, the LAG, and certainly the side pot issue is a factor. I'm wondering if the fold advice is coming from tight full-ringers, and if the push confirmation is coming from people with more experience with these specific game conditions. In such an aggressive 4-handed game I'd probably still fold as a risk-averse tactic, but it's worth looking deeper into the numbers before assuming this is the right play here.

[bbartlog]

BB seems to be loose passive postflop

an aggressive 4-handed game

Which is it? I agree that if BB (who has been doing most of your opponents' raising) were aggressive, rather than passive as you described him, your move starts to look a lot better, since he will have a wider range for raising. But when someone you describe as 'passive' raises pot I'm inclined to give him credit for a hand.
As for the overall expectation, I think it's true that you're ahead most of the time. The problem is that when you're ahead, you're ahead by a little, while when you're behind you're pretty far behind. 26% pot equity 3-handed may not sound too awful, but that's actually pretty -EV. You need quite a few 55% equity situations HU to balance that out.
So anyway, what was the thought process behind your raise? Did you figure you had good equity 3-handed and expect UTG to call, or were you trying to get him to fold some hands that would clean up your outs against BB (like J,Q,K-high flush draws)? Unlike some other posters here I don't advocate a fold on the flop; I think calling, then jamming the turn if a low card comes is a good line. But I think the huge raise on the flop is counterproductive. You are making it too easy for UTG to play correctly.

[Phil153]

26% is against a better flush draw + an overpair for UTG (which can board pair for a better two pair and hit an 8% set), and a made straight for short stack. Pretty awful scenario.

Put this as made straight for short stack + wrap for UTG and you're looking pretty hot. Even give UTG a set of 7s and you're not in a bad spot.

The point is that even with assumption that short stack has a straight (which is likely, I would say), we're looking good unless UTG is also in very good shape.

[bbartlog]

Hmmm... looking at the stack sizes and the action more closely, I'm liking the push better. I think I was looking at this too much as a true 3-handed situation, whereas in reality you have a 3-handed pot (where you're probably a bit behind on average) and an even bigger HU pot with UTG, where UTG is probably trapped into calling as a dog rather than surrender his equity in the main pot. So I withdraw my earlier opinion. Just don't play it this way if BB has $120...

[phishguy]

Results????

[MattS]

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BB seems to be loose passive postflop

an aggressive 4-handed game

[/ QUOTE ]

BB was the only one who was passive postflop.

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Results????

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River was a Ten and I scooped. Unfortunately you will not see the losing hands at showdown at the Prima Network. Therefore I have no idea what kind of hand UTG had played. BB had probably flopped the straight because he made a frustrated remark.

[PorkPieHat]

I'm thinking flat calling flop and waiting to see if you pick up the low draw on the turn is a better move, but I'll be honest, I am too lazy to run the numbers.

[TxRedMan]

Your mistake was re-raising on the flop. Practice pot control when you have marginal two way hands that you dont want to bloat the pot with.

You probably could have played this pot for $43.90, instead you played it for $125.20.

[Rush17]

[ QUOTE ]
Your mistake was re-raising on the flop. Practice pot control when you have marginal two way hands that you dont want to bloat the pot with.

You probably could have played this pot for $43.90, instead you played it for $125.20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, I agree.