Limit Omaha Hi/Lo $0.50/$1, three backdoor draws on the flop

[dcasper70]

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Anyone consider raising the flop bet?

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me

I wouldn't have had the chance though, I'd have raised preflop, then bet the flop when it was checked to me.

Without the pfr, I'd love that flop raise. Nice call niss.

[benwood]

JosuaMayes:Thanks.Good work. Ben.

[Buzz]

Matt - In my humble opinion, this is a difficult decision. You won't improve to better than two pair more than 80% of the time, and with eight opponents seeing the flop, you'll almost surely have to improve to at least trips or better to win. here's how often Hero simulates to make each type of hand (out of 10,000 times) if he sticks around to see the river:
4505 one pair (the aces)
3675 two pairs
788 trips
274 straight
465 flush
282 full house
11 quads

If hero makes two types of the above hands, only the better one is listed. For example, if Hero makes a straight and a flush, only the flush shows in the above totals.

Hero figures to make low after this flop 10*16/990 = about 16%, roughly one time in every six.

That all should give you an idea of what the various back door draws are worth.

If I ran that same simulation again, I'd expect to get slightly different numbers. (Not the low; I calculated the low).

Yet despite all these negatives, you should probably see one more card if you can do so cheaply.

But then you have to hit the turn very well to continue. You should really want to see a club or the ace of spades on the turn to continue. The four of spades is not really what you wanted.

Tough to fold here with the nut low draw. But except for the three non-diamond fives and maybe the ace of spades, you only have twelve outs for half (3/5) or a quarter (2/5) of the pot.

This is a tough hand to play after this flop. Considering your opposition, I think you see one more card for one more small bet, but then reluctantly fold when it's the four of spades, in spite of having picked up the nut low draw on the turn.

Buzz

[palamedes]

PF: I think it is close between raising and folding, but I'd be inclined to raise. However, I think it depends a LOT on your read of the players who have already entered the pot, and the players to come. If the players who have entered are loose, and not as likely to be holding aces, and the players behind you are tight, likely to fold decent high prospects to a raise, then by all means raise. If the players in front are tight, and those behind loose, don't raise -- the aces are gone, and your raise won't fold out better prospects for high. And you don't want to raise out A3s in any case (and you stand almost no chance of raising out low hands that are equal to or better than yours). You could, however, consider raising for value, unless you strongly suspect that a player who has already entered the pot also holds A2.

Flop: I think the call here is marginal. I would either fold or raise. The raise would be mainly to fold out other A2 hands, but also to set up a possible win of high later, if the bettor and callers are betting and calling either draws or very weak made high hands.

Turn: Six players went to the turn. One of them already has a better high hand than yours, almost without question. Others are fishing in for a low. If the low comes, you might very well be getting quartered, and your chances at high now seem very slim indeed. I would fold.

River: FOLD FOLD FOLD! Yes, *maybe* the SB has a busted flush draw and is trying to represent the full house instead. Maybe. But with a bet and a call here, you have virtually no chance for high, unless these players are complete idiots. And there is another to act behind you. Somebody here (probably more than one) has you beat, and *they* aren't going to fold.

[grjr]

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Tough to fold here with the nut low draw. But except for the three non-diamond fives and maybe the ace of spades, you only have twelve outs for half (3/5) or a quarter (2/5) of the pot.

This is a tough hand to play after this flop. Considering your opposition, I think you see one more card for one more small bet, but then reluctantly fold when it's the four of spades, in spite of having picked up the nut low draw on the turn.

Buzz

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Buzz, you don't think the 3 non-diamond fives, which give a possible scoop, add enough value to call this turn? I'm pretty sure I wouldn't consider folding here.

When I call the flop I'm looking for a club, a non-diamond 4 or 5, or an ace. I get the 4 on the turn. I'm getting 8:1 immediate odds with several people behind who will probably call (I would't expect a raise because of the 4) so counting that and the bets on the river I'm getting some excellent implied odds.

As for the other people above doing the math for the flop call, I'm not sure you give enough weight to some of the really excellent cards that can hit the turn. The 6,7, and 8 of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are great and the 4 ,5 of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are even better.

When you have 2 cards that can hit 3 backdoor draws at one time when added with the other good cards I don't see how you can fold the flop.

[benwood]

I am attempting to develop a new method for evaluating back-door draws.This is by considering the first round to be a "draw to a draw",as Josua Mayes so aptly described it.I believe that this method is superior to using a simulation or a mathmatical analysis that lumps both rounds together because you don't automatically pay for the 2nd round just because you pay for the first one.You have the option of paying for the first round & then throwing your hand away on the second one.Evaluating each round seperately rather than looking at the two rounds as a package can dramatically alter the decision whether or not to play the first round.

Suppose you were playing a hand of Omaha & were deciding whether or not to call the flop or not for $10 with a couple of backdoor draws.Suppose further that a friend standing behind you says,"I will give you $20 t0 "buy the hand" from you if you hit one of the back-door draws."You are getting 2 to 1 on the proposition.If you will pick up a draw more often than 1 time out of 3,you should take him up on his proposition.

It's the same thing when you are deciding whether or not to continue playing the hand yourself.If the hand,on the turn,will have enough "value"(equity,EV,or whatever),when you pick up a draw,you should take a card off on the flop.You do not include calculations all the way to the river at this point.The "pay-off" for your flop decision is the "turn value",not the amount that you will receive if you win the hand.

Suppose on the flop that you are last to act & that there are 20 sb's in the pot.Suppose further that you will pick up a nut draw 1/2 of the time for 1/2 of the pot.This means that if you hit the "pick-up" on the turn,you will invest 1 bb to try to win the 5 bb's in your half of the pot.If the odds of hitting your draw are less than 5 to 1,you should take off another card on the turn.If this is the case,you made a good decision on the flop,regardless of whether you now hit your draw or not.

Too long,I know.Sorry about that.Buzz,Josua Mayes,& any other of you guys with good mathmatically oriented analytical minds:If you would like to consider this & let me know what you think,Iwould appreciate it.Thanks a lot. Ben.

{MattS,I apoligize for hi-jacking your thread.)

[grjr]

I believe a loose limit Omaha 8 game is all about backdoor draws. Once I reconvinced myself of that my earnings took off again.

Pot limit is a completely different animal so I think most of the pot limit players don't realize how valuable the BD draws are in limit. Actually, the same holds true in loose limit holdem games (although not quite as much) and I've been trying to convince 2+2ers of that for quite a while.

[Buzz]

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Buzz, you don't think the 3 non-diamond fives, which give a possible scoop, add enough value to call this turn? I'm pretty sure I wouldn't consider folding here.

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John - Yes. Thanks for the correction. I agree Hero should see the river for one big bet after the four of spades on the turn.

Here's my fresh math scratch work for the four of spades on the turn:
26*.6*3/44
18.5*.4*3/44
11*.6*13/44
3.5*.4*13/44
-2*28/44
1.06+0.50+1.95+0.41-1.27 = +2.65

Then when Hero misses on the river he should fold.

Buzz