River Decision on Flush Board

ncboiler · #1 09-12-2006, 08:05 PM

This is probably an easy river bet but I would like to know what you all think. Do you c/c, b/c, or b/f this river?

UTG is 23/9/1.6 over 450 hands
MP2 is 11/4/1 over 90 hands <<this is the dude that concerns me

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 folds, MP2 calls, 1 folds, CO calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

This raise could mean a lot of things among them flush draw raise for value/free card.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

I hit my hand. I see no reason to check raise. In my mind MP2's failure to raise elevates the possibilty of FD. UTG could also be on flush draw.

River: (10.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero...

Bad card. Thoughts please. My straight may now only be worth a split pot (obviously).

Final Pot: 10.50 BB.

James. · #2 09-12-2006, 09:42 PM

i would bet. i think a guy like MP2 has a made hand like JT that got scared on the turn as much as a flush draw. i guess someone as tight/semi-passive as he may play a flush draw aggressively, but i sort of discount it. obviously that river card sucks for your hand, but if it didn't help them it would be just as scary to them as it is to you, so the times your hand is good it will often check through if you don't bet and as a result we lose value against relative calling stations. also, this is one of those spots that we are in better shape if we bet and get called as opposed to checking and calling a bet(i.e. if we are calling their bet we are very often losing). if we get raised i think we are almost always toast and maybe some action sequences would lend me closer to a fold than others, but given the pot size if i'm closing the action i will often at least consider calling(HU i would usually call, i think).

eldoctor007 · #3 09-12-2006, 11:42 PM

Since he raised on the flop, I put MP2 on KJ or AJ. It is likely UTG made his flush. Personally I would bet the river, and maybe ( I would likely still call)fold to a raise from UTG, but not from MP2.
With 13.5 BB, you only have to win 21% of the time to make this a profitable play.

freedom18 · #4 09-13-2006, 03:17 AM

check see how the action goes on behind you i think we can fold if its 2 bets back to us

Bullitos · #5 09-13-2006, 03:33 AM

I would bet/call this. Somebody may even have a pair of J,T,Q, 2 pair or an ace with weak kicker. There was no preflop raising so AJ is unlikely but possible. I think alot of weaker hands are paying you off and once in a while you run into the flush/FH, so be it.

phosix · #6 09-13-2006, 09:12 AM

i like the bet call. or c/c the reason you have to call a raise is that somone else with the straight may raise that hand. but cant we expect a bet from one of them anyways if we check??

Bullitos · #7 09-13-2006, 11:13 AM

If we check/call here they will be checking their mediocre hands they would probably call with. And they will bet the straight or the flush so we are really losing value by checking.

shark6 · #8 09-13-2006, 11:22 AM

Bet. 2-pairs calls and maybe weak ace calls. I discount the 4-flush free card flop play from MP2 because he looks pretty weak/tight.

Then call a raise because....
[ QUOTE ]
the reason you have to call a raise is that somone else with the straight may raise that hand

[/ QUOTE ]

ncboiler · #9 09-13-2006, 06:30 PM

Thanks all. I checked and it was check through. James is the winner because he got it pretty much dead on. MP2 had J/10. I knew I should have bet as soon as I checked.