6.50 bubble play

[Master_Shake]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t3015)
BB (t3090)
UTG (t3425)
Hero (t3970)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t500</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t875) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t700</font>, BB calls t700.

Turn: (t2275) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2745 (All-In)</font>



Final Pot: t6005

[xsizzurpx]

what is your question?

[Master_Shake]

did i play it correctly?

[ger664]

Why did you shove the turn ?

[johnnyknish]

why the huge over bet??

[Ted Williams]

Is shoving the turn there a bad play? There's already T2550 in the pot, and he only has T2745 left. He has top two. There's a possible straight, but it's a gutshot that would have hit. The BB could have called the flop and checked the turn with a lot of hands that Hero is ahead of.

If I'm him, I don't want to give someone with a bare A or T a cheap draw at broadway. The BB may also be on the flush draw -- he may call a big bet here if he's not very good, but he's not going to call anything on the river if the flush comes.

I don't have a problem with him pushing here, it makes sense to me. Am I missing something?

Ted

[ger664]

Shoving the turn is not bad if u are doing it for the right reason.
The only time to shove this on the turn is if I have seen villian to call overbets with marginal hands.

I am getting all my chips in the middle here but I want as much equity as possible from the hand, shoving with the intention of getting draws to fold is just plain bad.


Bet back for t1200.

[Master_Shake]

[ QUOTE ]
Shoving the turn is not bad if u are doing it for the right reason.
The only time to shove this on the turn is if I have seen villian to call overbets with marginal hands.

I am getting all my chips in the middle here but I want as much equity as possible from the hand, shoving with the intention of getting draws to fold is just plain bad.


Bet back for t1200.

[/ QUOTE ]
Alright... thanks, i guess this was my question, How much to bet on the turn.. and now that i think about it betting in two big chunks will give me better value than a shove that could scare villain away with a hand that would pay me off ...

[chuckpalms04]

shoving's not bad - look at effective stacks. bb has t1800 left, pot's almost 2300, shove looks good to me.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Is shoving the turn there a bad play? There's already T2550 in the pot, and he only has T2745 left. He has top two. There's a possible straight, but it's a gutshot that would have hit. The BB could have called the flop and checked the turn with a lot of hands that Hero is ahead of.

If I'm him, I don't want to give someone with a bare A or T a cheap draw at broadway. The BB may also be on the flush draw -- he may call a big bet here if he's not very good, but he's not going to call anything on the river if the flush comes.

I don't have a problem with him pushing here, it makes sense to me. Am I missing something?

Ted

[/ QUOTE ]

Before I do some ICM - I think you're correct in that taking the pot down now could be just as good (or better) as letting him draw for an incorrect price but allowing us to lose our stack occasionally.

So before we start -
SB 3015 = $$12.57
BB 3090 = $12.78
UG 3425 = $13.68
HR 3970 = $14.95

Taking out BB completely -

SB 2915 = $16.01
UG 3425 = $16.83
HR 7160 = $21.15

So we gain about $6 which is quite a lot since this is a $6.50 buy-in.

Losing to BB -

SB 2915 = $14.02
BB 6280 = $19.60
UG 3425 = $15.20
HR 880 = $5.16

This is obviously really bad. And keep in mind that there's no written law that says when we shove the turn we're ahead although it's pretty likely we are.

Villian folds turn -
SB 2915 = $12.86
BB 1890 = $9.23
UG 3425 = $14.20
HR 5270 = $17.70

So the unlazy can probably do some math to see if we want villian to call with a draw and what % draw we want him to call. When we let him draw out we lose $12.50, when we get his stack we gain $4 (using the villain folds turn equity as our base point). I'm too lazy to do all that [censored] so someone else figure it out from here.