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#1
11-06-2007, 07:35 AM
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Big river bluff
UTG is fish, BTN is a very solid tricky TAG who seems to have my number.
Flop isn't standard for me, but I figured it gets some value form the times villain would have folded. It also lets me assess the action back around to me cheaply, and my hand isn't super-vulnerable. Thoughts? On the river I figure he is turning his hand into a bluff often enough, he can't have the Ah or full house very often, and will often fold Qh, so this should be profitable. On the other hand he is getting good odds if he wants to bluff catch. Party Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $792 BB: $1,630 UTG: $365.25 Hero (MP): $1,000 CO: $563.75 BTN: $2,267.75 Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP) UTG calls $10, <font color="red">Hero raises to $45</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $45, SB calls $40, BB folds, UTG calls $35 Flop: ($190) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $130</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $130 Turn: ($450) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, BTN checks River: ($450) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $350</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $825 and is All-In</font> 
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#2
11-06-2007, 07:55 AM
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Re: Big river bluff
def not after he checked the turn
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#4
11-06-2007, 08:09 AM
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Re: Big river bluff
this is so bad. like, I really don't know what you're representing besides KK/AhKx/AhQx/AhJx/AhTx.
If villain is any good, he is snap calling you with Ah, taking some time before calling you with Qh/Jh, and he might fold Th. I really doubt he has a hand like, KJ/KQ (no heart) betting this river since there is no reason (imo) to turn his hand (which has showdown value) into a bluff. It would not surprise me if he has AhKx or KxQh and called you pretty fast. If he bet/folded this river, you had the best hand.
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#5
11-06-2007, 08:09 AM
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Re: Big river bluff
takes less air hands out of his range. You beat like 88ish bluffing w/ sd value, but that's it. He prob has a heart like KxQh and prob won't fold given your line. you can't rep a FH or Ah. Callings better then pushing, but i'd muck.
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#6
11-06-2007, 08:21 AM
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Re: Big river bluff
[ QUOTE ]
takes less air hands out of his range. You beat like 88ish bluffing w/ sd value, but that's it. He prob has a heart like KxQh and prob won't fold given your line. you can't rep a FH or Ah. Callings better then pushing, but i'd muck. [/ QUOTE ] If villain has 88, it's 88 with no heart. Call is better than a raise but folding is better than calling imo.
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#7
11-06-2007, 08:24 AM
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Re: Big river bluff
[ QUOTE ]
If villain has 88, it's 88 with no heart. [/ QUOTE ] ldo? read what i said again
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#8
11-06-2007, 08:33 AM
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Re: Big river bluff
OK I agree this was a big spew.
However, I need to clarify some of the analysis. My preflop range is really quite wide in this spot and thus includes all the available sets and AhXh combos. Furthermore I'm quite capable of checking monsters on multiple streets. This is what i'm representing - a flopped or turned monster. Furthermore I think his range is more skewed to PP making a desperation bluff than you guys think. Would he not play them the same way? After I call the flop he has to shut down really. On the river, he again has an opportunity to take the pot away. Alot of his range is a PP that either has a medium heart (which would check), or no heart (which would bet, as it has very little showdown value versus my flop call)
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