Ron Paul 8 to 1 for the presidency???!!

[AWoodside]

Sportsbet.com has Ron Paul at 8 to 1 for the presidency right now. I'm a huge fan of RP but this is totally shocking to me, almost unbelievable. I want to believe it, but I can't help but be skeptical.

I don't know much about these prediction markets but I have heard that they have a tendency to be much more accurate indicators of political outcomes than any type of expert analysis. Can somebody more in the know tell me how legit these odds are and your reason for thinking so?

Thanks.

p.s. He was 100 to 1 a couple weeks ago. I got online today because I had decided to buy a couple hundred bucks worth at that price... talk about missing the boat.

[andyfox]

100 to 1 is too low.

[iron81]

Last Paul betting thread. I think I answered your question there.

[adanthar]

Is this site a market by any chance?

edit: oh, it's sportsbook.com. yeah, not only is that not a market, the cashout if you somehow win (heh) will take months.

[CallMeIshmael]

This was discussed a little while back.


It spilled over into an SMP post soliciting a response from Sklansky.

Long story short, sports books reflect the odds the public perceives for an event (which, itself, is perhaps influenced by desire) rather than the true odds for the event.

[Borodog]

As we've talked about before, it's a sucker bet. Sportsbet makes that line because they believe the actual odds are much higher.

However, I will stand by my previous analysis that the real odds are probably not more than an order of magnitude longer than the average such price. They lowered the line because they believe the previous line (15:1 I believe for them) was no longer as profitable.

I would like to see the lines from various competing sportsbooks. It's very easy for supporters to get excited about the lowest line even though it's the highest market price. I'd much rather know what the average price and the standard deviation.

[AWoodside]

[ QUOTE ]
Last Paul betting thread. I think I answered your question there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, didn't see that. Sorry for spamming the forum. Thanks Iron.

[j555]

Anyone who thinks Ron Paul has the same odds to win the Presidency as Mitt Romney has at this point is crazy and right now they're both listed at 8 to 1. I think someone quoted the intrade.com line of 3.2% for Ron Paul in that other thread and that has gone up to 4.2% recently and actually has Romney at way better odds with 21.9% and this is just for the Rep. nomination so Paul's odds at the Presidency would be much longer. This might be a little more accurate than the sports books, but there's still a long way to go.

[NickMPK]

Is there any sportsbook where you can bet against Ron Paul winning the presidency? What kind of odds can you get for that?

[Copernicus]

Its an online sportsbook and the vast majority of RPs supporters are computer geeks. That he should be way underpriced there is no great surprise.

Short it.