Maximising Value of an Exploit

[RobNottsUk]

Let's suppose it's a well understood FLHE game, with enough donators, for a disciplined solid player to win 4BB/100 at long term.

Many pots are short-handed, or heads up, and sometimes the winning players clash.

So you have on average 2-3 winning opponents 4BB/100 who are Fish-Farmers, massively multi-tabling and playing too long so they could be considered bots.

You discover an exploit, that allows you to take an additional 3-5 BB's when it comes off, and you expect to lose an extra 2.5 BB's 10% of time when it doesn't. The situation occurs about 1 in 50 hands, so is a huge boost to your win rate.

Should you use this exploit every time?
Only some of the time, say 1 in 100.

If you win consistently at 8BB/100 you fear your opponents stats and much lowered win rate, will either stop them playing with you or investigate your play closely and discover the exploit making it useless in future.

So how do you maximise your long run take?

[mce86]

If the worry is it will be exploited, you would let it go sometimes thereby allowong you to continue to use it. Perhaps you would use this exploit for big pots, and let it slide for marginal ones.