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#1
10-03-2007, 08:40 AM
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FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
This kind of thing has happened very frequently, with less vulnerable hands than a flopped str8 eg) nut full houses. Whilst I've experienced the variance of FLHE, and bad runs. Having put a lot of work in on FLO8 to improve my game, I'm getting very little out, and it's getting dispiriting. If a hand stands up, it's generally a smaller pot due to lack of aggressive players to help me push pot equity advantages.
Have other winning players, gone through poor runs? FLO8 seems to me to be a real grind, just eeking out small edges, with very poor players able to play loose-passive with their stacks going off in rake, rather than over to my stack. In FLHE I tend to have more chance to protect vulnerable marginal hands eg) top pair on flop by check/raise. With the FLO8 1-1-2-2 betting structure, caller collusion is making the most horrible flop calls seem like a small price for the next card. Pre-flop: I raise with A289 precisely to buy outs for middle str8s Flop: Nut Str8 + nut Lo draw, bet I think if Fish1 wants to go for a str8, with an 5A Lo draw, putting me on Nut Lo he ought to be raising, and hope my Lo draw gets busted, possibly gaining free card on turn. MP2 seems to have got rewarded for very bad play. Turn: Nuts + nut Lo draw, bet River: Non nut str8 no Lo As is I realised the river card was bad, but I value bet because the pot was big, noone would put me on the 98 str8 so I'd get called by weaker hands (even pairs), and the loose players behind had 'random' hands, rather than high liklihood of nut str8. I couldn't construct a good reason for most KJ/J8 hands to be in the pot. MP2 is quite poor enough to call a raise with medium running cards, and draw on a gutshot to a split pot, ie. T-hi str8, not just drawing to a better nut str8, hence my call of river raise. Furthermore if I showed weakness, MP1 bets then I end up calling MP2's raise anyway. What happens is I miss bets, when my hand has stood up, and pay off the same when it hasn't. So is my thinking and way I played this sensible? Do I keep plugging away, perhaps exercising a little more caution regarding the nuts on the river. Perhaps switching over to PLO would make more sense? FTR Hand History Converter Output (intended for copying and pasting into poker forums!): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Omaha/8 (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards) Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with  ,  ,  ,  . [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, Button calls, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, BB calls. Flop: (10.50 SB)  ,  ,  [color=#0000FF](5 players)</font>BB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, BB folds. Turn: (7.25 BB)  [color=#0000FF](4 players)</font>[color=#CC3333]Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls. River: (11.25 BB)  [color=#0000FF](4 players)</font>[color=#CC3333]Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, [color=#CC3333]MP2 raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls. Final Pot: 17.25 BB Results in white below: [color=#FFFFFF] Hero has 8c 9h 2d Ah (High: straight, ten high). MP1 has 6c 8d Ad 5c (High: straight, ten high). MP2 has Jd Qs Ks 3d (High: straight, king high). Outcome: MP2 wins 17.25 BB. </font> 
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#4
10-03-2007, 02:20 PM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
River play is sad. You have to c/f or c/c here. You missed your nut low draw, and your straight is highly susceptible.. which is EXACTLY what happens when you're depending on 98 in this game. In a sense you were forced into it with the A2.. not faulting you for playing it. But no way am I raising it PF, b/c you're really only playing for half the pot from the get-go. Just take it easy until the lo hits, and then get frisky. (Of course I have no idea what the board is for this hand, so this is based only on the results you've posted.)
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#5
10-03-2007, 03:33 PM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
Betting the river OOP is sketchy here. I know that you WANT to believe that you're still good, but there are simply too many ways in which you are not. Whether you c/f or c/c is player-dependent but leans toward c/f.
As I'm sure you know, limit poker is a game of winning and/or saving one bet here and one bet there. A bet saved is a bet won. If you're bleeding in the way shown in this hand with any amount of regularity, it would account for your "variance." If you find yourself at tables full of tight-weakies, consider being that aggressor -- build your own pots. It isn't likely that you're going to get the help on that level. (It's fun too.) Also, in today's online poker world, at least from the US perspective, it's really hard to make any $ online at the lower limits. There are too many competent hobbyists and not enough fish. It's going to be really hard to meaningfully beat the rake at 50 cent FLO8. (Could you tell me how the play is from the UK on the other sites that have barred US players? If it's softer, consider playing there.)
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#6
10-04-2007, 12:47 AM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
Hi Rob – I can see why you would feel disheartened. That hand has so much promise after the flop – and then fizzle, poof - nothing. Much as I know that is going to happen sometimes, it’s still disappointing to me when it does.
The turn is a terrible card for you, a fizzle. At least it does not make someone a flush draw, but it gives you nothing and opens the way for many losing cards on the river. After this turn, you really like 12 cards (threes, fours, and fives). And at least you’re guaranteed some part of the pot with aces, eights, and deuces, another 9 cards. But then, poof, the river is one of the cards that does not enable low and makes a higher straight possible (and also makes a whole bunch of ties possible). And as often happens, an opponent has just the right two-card combination to profit from the river at your expense. You just didn’t have any luck here. [ QUOTE ] If a hand stands up, it's generally a smaller pot due to lack of aggressive players to help me push pot equity advantages. [/ QUOTE ]That could be because you always have a good starting hand and then you always have a flop fit when you stay in the hand. While that’s a good way to play, if your opponents start thinking of you as a rock, you’ll have trouble getting action when you’re in a hand. I’m guessing you’re a solid player who pushes your edges. And your opponents will notice that after a while, see you as a rock, and tighten up against you. I think it’s a good idea to start out playing like a rock and to know how to play like a rock. But then as you learn the game, I think you can loosen up a bit when the game is loose, and you also can play more marginal flop fits. And you can start punishing opponents who play like rocks by not giving them action. And I think at some point you have to make that adjustment. And the period during which you’re making that adjustment can be brutal, with some zigging when you should be zagging and vice versa. [ QUOTE ] Have other winning players, gone through poor runs? [/ QUOTE ]I have. I back off and take some time to re-evaluate my game when it happens. [ QUOTE ] FLO8 seems to me to be a real grind, just eeking out small edges, with very poor players able to play loose-passive with their stacks going off in rake, rather than over to my stack. [/ QUOTE ]I don’t think that way. I’m always interested in trying to put my opponents on cards and then play accordingly. And it's simply fun for me to do that - to try to figure out what my opponents are thinking and what cards they hold. [ QUOTE ] In FLHE I tend to have more chance to protect vulnerable marginal hands eg) top pair on flop by check/raise. [/ QUOTE ]I don’t exactly think that way. I do try to protect hands that need protection. However, it seems generally a mistake to me to hope for a check raise to do that (but not if you’re in first position and feel certain everyone will check to the player in last position, who will then bet anything). [ QUOTE ] With the FLO8 1-1-2-2 betting structure, caller collusion is making the most horrible flop calls seem like a small price for the next card. [/ QUOTE ]Interesting. I’ll have to think about that. [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop: I raise with A289 precisely to buy outs for middle str8s [/ QUOTE ]Interesting. I’ll have to think about that too. [ QUOTE ] Flop: Nut Str8 + nut Lo draw, bet [/ QUOTE ] Yes! What a great flop!! [ QUOTE ] I think if Fish1 wants to go for a str8, with an 5A Lo draw, putting me on Nut Lo he ought to be raising, and hope my Lo draw gets busted, possibly gaining free card on turn. [/ QUOTE ]Hmm. Why would he do that? [ QUOTE ] MP2 seems to have got rewarded for very bad play. [/ QUOTE ]That happens a lot. But that’s good for you! If your opponents never got rewarded for bad play, they’d be less likely to play badly against you. Sometimes it’s a mystery to me what my opponents are thinking, but they’re thinking something! They’re trying to beat me and trying to think of ways to do that. And the nature of the game is they have to win sometimes to keep coming back. [ QUOTE ] Turn: Nuts + nut Lo draw, bet [/ QUOTE ]Instead of thinking that way, consider thinking in terms of how many river cards are good for you and how many are bad. You might end up playing the same way, but I believe it’s a slightly better way to think. [ QUOTE ] As is I realised the river card was bad, but I value bet because the pot was big, noone would put me on the 98 str8 so I'd get called by weaker hands (even pairs), and the loose players behind had 'random' hands, rather than high liklihood of nut str8. [/ QUOTE ] No hand is an island. By occasionally making a bet like this, you’ll tend to get more action the next time you bet the nuts on the river. But, yes, if you make bad bets too often on the river, you’re throwing away more money for “advertising” than you need to expend. And by boldly betting here, if you do have a solid reputaion, you might knock out one of the multitude of hands that tie you here. (Of course that doesn't help you in this particular instance, since someone has a two-card combination that makes a higher straight). [ QUOTE ] Furthermore if I showed weakness, MP1 bets then I end up calling MP2's raise anyway. [/ QUOTE ]Exactly. Good point. [ QUOTE ] What happens is I miss bets, when my hand has stood up, and pay off the same when it hasn't. [/ QUOTE ]Hard to know, isn’t it? That’s the “play good poker” aspect of Omaha-8. I think you try to put opponents on cards – but then if the pot is large enough sometimes you pay off even when you’re pretty certain you’re beaten. [ QUOTE ] So is my thinking and way I played this sensible? [/ QUOTE ]I think so. It’s not exactly the way I would have played it, but whatever. [ QUOTE ] Do I keep plugging away, perhaps exercising a little more caution regarding the nuts on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don’t know. [ QUOTE ] Perhaps switching over to PLO would make more sense? [/ QUOTE ]Why would that make more sense? This particular hand, where you happen to flop the high nuts and the nut low draw, is easier to play after this flop in pot limit because you can make a huge bet to protect it. But another time, you’ll be on the other end of a pot sized bet with a hand to which you’d like to draw and you’ll wonder if the bettor has the nuts or is bluffing or semi-bluffing. Buzz
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#7
10-04-2007, 08:33 AM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
Sorry folks, I'm going to have to respond to points in digestible pieces.
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If a hand stands up, it's generally a smaller pot due to lack of aggressive players to help me push pot equity advantages. [/ QUOTE ]That could be because you always have a good starting hand and then you always have a flop fit when you stay in the hand. While that’s a good way to play, if your opponents start thinking of you as a rock, you’ll have trouble getting action when you’re in a hand. I’m guessing you’re a solid player who pushes your edges. And your opponents will notice that after a while, see you as a rock, and tighten up against you. [/ QUOTE ] This is a very good point. But the general character of these games is : 1 or 2 bets pre-flop, 1 bet on flop, usually 1 bet on turn, and 1 or 2 bets on the river. The flop play is loose, and very passive. I look for spots as you say to build the pot with advantage on flop raises, but they are few and far between. Whilst I may, get to isolate a donk bettor on a HHL flop, very many passive players will check/call rather than risking putting 2 bets in, even when they should be pushing out the Lo draws. The problem, is not a lack of 'action', it is too much of the wrong sort of action, and gutless wimpy flop play by loose-passive (and tight-passive) players, who are afraid of being 3 bet. It's not just me who never sees flop or turn raises, it's the 'agreed'way the hands are played. If the games looser, 5+ players on flops, then it's very easy to win, but very, very tedious and boring after a while. In a tight game, with Rocky play, 2,3 players on most flops, I can play poker and grind out consistent scores. I have to be very disciplined but I beat those tables. The problem area is the 'grey' zone, usually 4 players on a flop, with 2 or 3 bets pre-flop, and 1 bet on the flop, and most turns. The Starting hand advantages are marginal, and these mindless callers don't make any mistakes like folding, a hand that might win something! Finally, in Hold'em although those kind of games can be frustrating, I've always found ways to beat them, and generally can give the illusion of 'Action' so, getting paid is not a problem for me. In FLO8 with the betting structure as is, it appears that loose-aggressive pre-flop, loose-passive players post-flop can push you in the Rock direction; and simply play a mindless strategy and yet avoid through mutual support losing significant chips. There's something wrong, when top set is a 'marginal' hand, and not a no-brainer raise of a loose calling field. Top 2 pair should be where the 'margin' is. Someone calling on runner-runner str8 draw where their live cards put Lo's on the board 6 - 13 times, really are making an awful play and ought to be charged for their willingness to do it.
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#8
10-04-2007, 08:57 AM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think if Fish1 wants to go for a str8, with an 5A Lo draw, putting me on Nut Lo he ought to be raising, and hope my Lo draw gets busted, possibly gaining free card on turn. [/ QUOTE ]Hmm. Why would he do that? [/ QUOTE ] Because he has a 2 way hand, a pair 6's, a str8 draw and a 5A Lo. If he's presuming I'm betting the Nut Lo draw, then promoting his Lo improves pot equity in a large pot. Due to this player being a complete Fish, his raise would scare players behind into folding all but their best holdings. Bottom line is, he'd love to get it HU with me, if I have AA2, then his 5 gives him outdraw chances, as well as bust cards '2' and he doesn't want to make his str8 and split the pot with some other Fish, playing 386K for instance. There's a real thread of getting 3 or 4 bet, making promotion have better chances than usual. As is by wimpy play, he got to make his hand to split, and it still being 2nd best, and costing him money, because he let a Hi hand in cheap. Alot of these calls you see around ought to be raises if they're not folds, the calls are logically inconsistent lazy thinking. Buzzz, some of your plays are much more aggressive than most's tastes, yet they work out for good sound reasons. In loose-passive post-flop play fold equity is less, but can significantly improve your expectation in large pots and actually reduce the costs of errors eg) drawing to 2nd best hand as MP2 did. Suppose the turn had been 3 or 4 bet, due to another player catching a set and deciding to 'punish' my obvious semi-bluffing? [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] MP2 seems to have got rewarded for very bad play. [/ QUOTE ]That happens a lot. But that’s good for you! If your opponents never got rewarded for bad play, they’d be less likely to play badly against you. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, bbbbb but I'd rather a 1-2-3-3 would reward them even more, with the overcharge price being definite. As is, if you ignore split pot liklihoods, his str8-ning cards making someone a raising hand, increasing his cost to hit the gutshot, and the fact that 2 A's at least are dead, and the 8's may be live but put a Lo on the board, makes his flop call only slightly poor. From 50c he probably in long run will get back most of it. This time, he was lucky in that there were 2 pay off hands, and noone felt that the turn card gave them a strong raising hand (except in a passive game, raises are rare). [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Turn: Nuts + nut Lo draw, bet [/ QUOTE ]Instead of thinking that way, consider thinking in terms of how many river cards are good for you and how many are bad. You might end up playing the same way, but I believe it’s a slightly better way to think. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. In my sketch of thinking, this bet is such a No brainer. I can't see how I would ever want to give a free card, because noone behind me is likely to bet, due to their passive nature. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] As is I realised the river card was bad, but I value bet because the pot was big, noone would put me on the 98 str8 so I'd get called by weaker hands (even pairs), and the loose players behind had 'random' hands, rather than high liklihood of nut str8. [/ QUOTE ] No hand is an island. By occasionally making a bet like this, you’ll tend to get more action the next time you bet the nuts on the river. But, yes, if you make bad bets too often on the river, you’re throwing away more money for “advertising” than you need to expend. And by boldly betting here, if you do have a solid reputaion, you might knock out one of the multitude of hands that tie you here. (Of course that doesn't help you in this particular instance, since someone has a two-card combination that makes a higher straight). [/ QUOTE ] I don't think I have a solid rep! That's another reason for betting myself, because if I bet, I'll get called by weak hands, but if I check and Fish MP1 bets, worse hands will fold. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Furthermore if I showed weakness, MP1 bets then I end up calling MP2's raise anyway. [/ QUOTE ]Exactly. Good point. [ QUOTE ] What happens is I miss bets, when my hand has stood up, and pay off the same when it hasn't. [/ QUOTE ]Hard to know, isn’t it? That’s the “play good poker” aspect of Omaha-8. I think you try to put opponents on cards – but then if the pot is large enough sometimes you pay off even when you’re pretty certain you’re beaten. [/ QUOTE ] I see the bet as on the raggy edge, and I don't expect it to be widely accepted. But see, what decided me in favour of a marginal value bet, was - 1) disguise of my hand 2) eagernerss of players to call me with anything 3) Only MP2 would have to be called on a raise 4) Player specific reads, skew their likely holdings making J8xx and KJxx less likely (MP1 & MP2 cold called raises remember)
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#9
10-04-2007, 09:12 AM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
[ QUOTE ]
Betting the river OOP is sketchy here. [/ QUOTE ] Yep, it's marginal. [ QUOTE ] I know that you WANT to believe that you're still good, but there are simply too many ways in which you are not. [/ QUOTE ] No, my decision is not whether my hand is good, (I thought it was likely 2nd best in fact) but whether a bet or check/call, or check/fold has the most +ve EV. In ToP on River play, it explains it. But as I expect 3 callers (yes 3) when my hand is good, when I bet I do not need to win even 50% of time! Say 4 ppl call, and 1 splits with me, then I earn a bet. I don't feel J8 str8 will raise, and I'll only have to call MP2 because he's the only player who'd may be raise here with a worse hand. So due to MP2 calling range, and higher liklihood of his holding a low raggy hand, or a pocket pair, I felt I'd rarely be calling his 2 bet raise, and sometimes when I do, I'll catch a bluff. Think ToP explains multi-way river decisions, after the "Heads Up on the River" section, it's poorly understood, but beginner's often play better here in reality than the battle scared. The hard thing multi-way is the exponential increase in quality of best hand, you do need a near nut hand most often in PLO8, but actually it's a subtle mistake to just be a nuts bettor. [ QUOTE ] Whether you c/f or c/c is player-dependent but leans toward c/f. As I'm sure you know, limit poker is a game of winning and/or saving one bet here and one bet there. A bet saved is a bet won. If you're bleeding in the way shown in this hand with any amount of regularity, it would account for your "variance." [/ QUOTE ] The games are very easy to beat, when they're good. The tough thing is to find good games at my usual playing time. Looser or tighter, is fine. The mid-zone of caller collusion is the problem. [ QUOTE ] If you find yourself at tables full of tight-weakies, consider being that aggressor -- build your own pots. It isn't likely that you're going to get the help on that level. (It's fun too.) [/ QUOTE ] They'll happily take free cards in PLO8. In Hold'em there's far more players who assist in building pots and trapping Fish for multiple bets. [ QUOTE ] Also, in today's online poker world, at least from the US perspective, it's really hard to make any $ online at the lower limits. There are too many competent hobbyists and not enough fish. It's going to be really hard to meaningfully beat the rake at 50 cent FLO8. (Could you tell me how the play is from the UK on the other sites that have barred US players? If it's softer, consider playing there.) [/ QUOTE ] Well the only place I can find a game or two is Poker Stars now. When I can play at 3pm ET especially Fridays, it seems the games are much softer. Or if I can play around 2am-3am ET, the games are often good with tilty US players. European players tend to play PLO or PLO8 not FLO8. That's another reason to consider PLO8, simply higher game availability, as well as not requiring other 'Action' players to build pots.
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#10
10-04-2007, 10:22 AM
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Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
Here's exact equity calcs based on shown down hands, obviously the river folder may have a nut Lo draw to, but it was a loose player who didn't have to have a great hand either. I hadn't done these before on this specific hand, but I think it backs up my concerns.
Pre-flop http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3761469 pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 8c 9h 2d ah - 6c 8d ad 5c - jd qs ks 3d Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 8c 2d Ah 9h 91470 136449 351420 12131 143733 93218 14029 0.348 6c 5c Ad 8d 85094 151765 336104 12131 128812 138771 14029 0.338 Ks Qs Jd 3d 114946 199655 300345 0 0 0 0 0.315 That shows why you raise less often against loose players. I did it to thin out some of the middle rundown cards, and trashy JT area card's which might duplicated those side cards. Flop http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3761470 pokenum -o8 8c 9h 2d ah - 6c 8d ad 5c - jd qs ks 3d -- 7d tc 6s Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 6s Tc 7d cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 8c 2d Ah 9h 368 449 161 56 371 96 9 0.738 6c 5c Ad 8d 29 76 534 56 96 371 9 0.178 Ks Qs Jd 3d 27 85 581 0 0 0 0 0.084 Sure looks like a good bet. Turn http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3761471 pokenum -o8 8c 9h 2d ah - 6c 8d ad 5c - jd qs ks 3d -- 7d tc 6s qh Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing 6s Tc 7d Qh cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 8c 2d Ah 9h 28 31 5 0 14 3 0 0.847 6c 5c Ad 8d 0 0 36 0 3 14 0 0.042 Ks Qs Jd 3d 3 5 31 0 0 0 0 0.111 This 'bad' card, is an even better bet on turn 84.7%. Obviously the river folder's equity was not likely to be less than 4.2%, but there's no reason to put him on an economic hand either. These players really are that awful, but the small flop bet, means they always have at least 4-1 on that money. In a game with many b'door possibilities, the Hold'em & 7Stud betting structure is allowing mindless flop play to go unpunished (1/2 bet for 8% pot equity in a pot likely to be at least 12 bets). This is not an unusual example. They'll call HU from a field with 3.6% equity, stumble into a draw on the turn, call that, and then check behind on river on the only street where they had an advantage. Yes you benefit, but only be a very small amount, and most of the time on the flop, if you consider pot + implied odds, the 1bb flop bet is so small you hope for folds.
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