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#41
12-16-2006, 04:09 AM
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Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
That's disappointing. Looks like another losing weekend (for me). I took some last minute positions that made CW my strongest play. Next, Pursuit over, followed by a very small Eragon over.
Again, fading me = making money. 
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#43
12-17-2006, 02:22 AM
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Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
I am not sure if it was smart or not, but I dumped my entire position on Eragon at +150. I havent calculated the exact total yet, but I think it leaves me with a .5 unit arb win. Plus, I still have the middle at 22-23.
I still think it is slightly over, but the +150 was too favor good of odds to pass up. My guess calc: 8.6 friday 8.0 Saturday 5.6 Sunday 22.2 total It will suck if it goes over because I will have bounced myself out of a winning position. However, if it goes over by less than a million than I pick up the sweet middle. So, min net win of .5 on Eragon.
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#44
12-17-2006, 07:40 AM
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Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
Yeah, it's outcome is uncertain now, although still more likely to be an Over. The middle has a decent shot at hitting, though, which would be fantastic! I love middles! I'm sure we all do. Hmmm...perhaps we could think about buying and selling middles, among ourselves. For both those who have them, and those who don't.
Earlier today, I was willing to buy the Pursuit of Happyness middle, and I even said I would trade some of the Eragon middle for it, straight up. Bet some of you wish you took me up on that now! This would be a fun thing to do, and sometimes, a really helpful thing, to get liquidity on here, and help us balance our positions, post-closing time at the books. Or even during the week, if the line changes, but you need still to alter your position at the old line. If anyone's interested in ever thinking about doing this stuff, please let me know, whether by PM or here. This could be a great benefit to us all. For this weekend, at least, you could have had a great shot at a low-risk chance for a $500 middle I was offering.
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#46
12-17-2006, 04:02 PM
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Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
Looks good. Honestly would never have put Pursuit at #1, ahead of Eragon and CW. CW flopped. Anyway, [censored] me for putting many of my eggs in that basket. At least I have Pursuit to bail me out of much of it. Only had an arb with Eragon.
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