Movies 12/15 to 12/18

[thing85]

If you're hitting the over on CW, make sure to do it on WSEX.

The Pinny over $23m is currently +123
On WSEX, over $22m is currently +120.

Huge value on WSEX, IMO.

[llabb]

The comps for Charlotte's Web suggest it should go well Over. Babe and Stuart Little are probably the 2 best comps, as 1 is a talking pig family film, and the other is a kids movie based off of a popular book. Charlotte's Web should be a bigger draw than either of these, as it is one of the biggest children's bestsellers of all time, and both kids and their parents, particularly moms, should be interested. Parents should almost all remember it as a great book, and the movie is getting crazy good reviews, with a stellar 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 8.0 on Metacritic.

Charlotte's Web has some really low lines out there, at 22 and 23, with the Over at either +odds or reasonable odds to take. With the enormous theater count at +566 theaters (one of the biggest I've ever seen) for 3,566 theaters and multiple screens in them, Charlotte only needs a 6.17k per theater average to make the line.

Babe garnered a 5.5k PTA way back in 1995. Inflation adjusted at 4%, that's an 8.8k PTA today. Even at a 2% rate, that's a 7k PTA, but as we all know, movie tickets have gotten a lot more expensive over the years, and 4% is probably still a conservative figure. If Charlotte got that 8.8k PTA that Babe would have, that would be a $31+ million opening. I'm not expecting anything that high, but it just shows you it's potential, as Charlotte's Web should be an even bigger draw than Babe.

The book is definitely a bigger draw than Stuart Little. Stuart had the same near-Christmas release date back in 1999, and is a very good comp, being a children's book movie, with Charlotte's being a bigger bestseller than Stuart. Stuart got a 5.2k PTA, which would be a 6.9k PTA today, and would mean that at Stuart Little levels, Charlotte would get a $24.6 million opening.

Also, late tracking is much better than normal for a kids' film, and suggests that Charlotte should be near the top of the weekend, in the mid-20's.

So taking the Over at seems pretty solid to me, either on it's own, or to go for a middle, for those who got in under the higher early lines.

[llabb]

Also, here are most of the appropriate Charlotte comps from BOM's similar films list. Charlotte's should be a bigger draw than most of these.


Curious George, G, 2/10/06, 5.73k PTA
Nanny McPhee, PG, 1/27/06, 7.27k PTA
Dreamer, PG, 10/21/05, 4.57k PTA
Because of Winn Dixie, PG, 2/18/05, 3.20k PTA
Garfield, PG, 6/11/04, 7.02k PTA
Stuart Little, PG, 12/17/99, 5.22k PTA
Dr. Doolittle, PG-13, 16/26/98, 10.45k PTA
Babe, G, 8/4/95, 5.49k PTA


These combine for an inflation-adjusted average of 7.4k PTA, which would be a $26.4 million opening for Charlotte.

This list shows that it's a fairly strong genre to get a solid PTA in, since it's a pretty strong average, even with several stinkers included on the list, which Charlotte should easily beat. Especially with a prime weekend right before the holiday season, and with many kids getting off school, which should make for a stronger-than-normal Sunday and a strong weekend multiplier.

[llabb]

Right now I have decent-sized Overs on all the movies. Have just as strong reasons for the other 2, but am tired and don't have time for big write-ups.

Sufficient to say that Happyness is tracking well, Will Smith is a huge draw, and his past movies have been huge. Even if you discount all the blockbusters as not very good comps, Ali was an Over with an 8.2k PTA and $20.2 3-day opening, even though it was an R-rated film with less appeal. Happyness is a bigger draw imo, and even at that PTA would be a $23.5 mil opening. It only needs a 6.3k PTA to hit the line.

Eragon advance sales are going gangbusters. For similar films, no one's looking for Narnia comps, as it would go Over even at 40% of Narnia. But even laughable films such as Reign of Fire had an inflation-adjusted 7.1k PTA, or Dragonheart with a 10.4k PTA. Eragon has the bestselling book fanbase draw, and only needs a 7.3k PTA.

So yeah, pretty happy with Overs on all three movies, at lines of 22, 22, and 18. 3* plays on each.

[thing85]

I'm trying to figure out why people are pounding the under on CW. On Pinny, the over is up to +168.

[llabb]

Don't know, people do weird things with movies. The Eragon Under is still being hit, too. Great odds available with that one, to take the Over.

Midnight sales have done really well, people comparing it to King Kong and doing half of Narnia's business, which suggests that it would point to a $30+ million opening! It's probably even more frontloaded than Narnia, so perhaps it would do in the mid-$20's then, but that would still be an easy Over 22.

All signs have been looking good for the Over on all 3 movies so far.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
So yeah, pretty happy with Overs on all three movies, at lines of 22, 22, and 18. 3* plays on each.

[/ QUOTE ]

There hasnt been 3 $20M+ movies (openers or otherwise) on this weekend for at least the last 10 years. In fact, it hasnt even been close. I have a hard time thinking there is that much love in the box office to support 3 +$20M movies, especially given the dismal showing last week.

My final exposed positions are:

Eragon over: 4 units
Charlotte under: 2 units
Happyness: not playing

I then have about $3500 tied into free middles. There is one more middle I am tracking that I hope to hit. I am just waiting for the odds to move some more.

edit:
I just missed a nice arb. lol. I hit WSEX +100 on the over for aragon $200. I ran out of WSEX funds and loaded up more from Neteller. I was going to hit Pinny +160u / WSEW +100o. But WSEX just took Aragon off the board. lol.

edit: dang it! They also just took down Web. There was likely going to be a middle there very soon. I could have bought it very cheap but I wanted to wait for better odds. In hind sight, I should have bought.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]

There hasnt been 3 $20M+ movies (openers or otherwise) on this weekend for at least the last 10 years. In fact, it hasnt even been close. I have a hard time thinking there is that much love in the box office to support 3 +$20M movies, especially given the dismal showing last week.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Utah, nice talking with you again. You made this point previously in fall once, saying that there haven't been 3 $10M+ fall movies in forever, and that was wrong. This type of analysis is just plain wrong, as the movie market is very elastic depending mainly on interest in the films. There is a limit, of course, but that is determined by the overall box office, not the # of movies past a certain threshhold.

This weekend (3rd weekend of December) is a huge one where studios release big guns, and it is often an enormous increase over the 1st 2 weeks of December (or just 1st week, if a good movie was actually released in the 2nd week).

There have been past years where we saw the box office get in the $70's for a single movie alone. Last year the openers got $62M+. In the last 5 years, there have been weekends with openers getting in the $90's, and in the high $70's.

So yeah, I think that this weekend could easily break $62 mil for the openers (combined lines of 22, 22, and 18), if all of the huge interest being shown gets follow-through over the weekend. Question remains if it will, but all of the indicators so far have been tremendous.

[llabb]

Wrote up a little more on Happyness:

Will Smith is an enormous box office draw, who has carried many blockbusters for PTA's in the high teens. The Pursuit of Happyness just needs a ridiculously low 6.3k PTA to hit the line. The summer blockbusters were obviously way higher, but aren't comparable.

Enemy of the State was one of the first Will Smith solo vehicles, and was a November action drama. Got an 8.4k PTA, 11.5k inflation-adjusted.

Ali was an R-rated adult-audience film, so some similar demographics, although Happyness targets females more, is PG-13 friendly, and should be a bigger general draw. Ali had an 8.2k 1st 3-day opening, 10.0k PTA inflation-adjusted.

Even relative dud The Legend of Bagger Vance, which was not a Will Smith solo vehicle nor very interesting looking, had a 5.6k PTA, 7.1k inflation-adjusted.

Hitch was a rom-com, which would draw more interest than an adult drama like Happyness, but shows what a PG-13 Will Smith vehicle with female interest can do, at a 12.1k PTA, 13.1 inflation-adjusted.

So given all of this, I'm looking for something more in line with Ali's figures, perhaps an 8-10k PTA for an opening in the mid-$20's. The Bagger Vance inflation-adjusted 7k PTA should be a floor, which means I see this doing at least in the 20's, which is in line with late tracking that indicated 20+.

Also, Oprah has been pimping this movie a lot, and she has an enormous influence on what a lot of females read and watch. She made some huge pushes for a couple movies last year, and some give her a bit of credit for helping Crash win Best Picture in a huge upset last year. That aside, this should help spike female interest in a movie that should appeal to them already.

Quite comfortable with my Over 18 plays, as well as some at Over 19 at better odds.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
This type of analysis is just plain wrong, as the movie market is very elastic depending mainly on interest in the films. There is a limit, of course, but that is determined by the overall box office, not the # of movies past a certain threshhold.

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe. Maybe not [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Quality/Marketing/type of movie and box office total $ capacity are more important factors than # of movies of at a threshold. However, I always ask, "why are they releasing the movie this week?". Openers have typically done poorly in this time frame. Additionally, you cant take blockbusters and divide up for future years. So, if historically the results for wide release openers is (in $M): 100,5,5,5,5,60,4,6,8,90,8,3,12,16,50.....then I have a hard time saying that 20,20,20 makes sense. The results can sometimes be a binomial model - i.e, if huge blockbuster then 1 if mediocre movie then 0.

At the end of the day, I am simply saying, "I havent ever seen 3 big successful movies released in this timeframe before so I have room to pause." I am not saying, "dont bet the over on 3 $20M movies at the same time in this timeframe because it cant happen". It is simply another factor. If I really liked the over on all 3 of the movies this week then I would ignore the factor. If I am close to a coin flip then I will take it into account.