Simple Poll

[btmagnetw]

Stranger walks up to you on the street and challenges you to rock paper scissors. as you guys wind up, he says "i'm going rock".

What does the play?

[roo400]

paper since everyone always try to bluff so the opposite of what he says is paper. go scissors and he's done.

but seriously, get a physic tell on him, he'll never go scissors, I think

[MychCumstien]

[ QUOTE ]
paper since everyone always try to bluff so the opposite of what he says is paper. go scissors and he's done.

but seriously, get a physic tell on him, he'll never go scissors, I think

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely disagree. If he's lying and doesn't pick rock. He'll choose scissors, because he'll think you'l pick paper to beat his rock. Pretty simple.

the real question, is he telling the truth? will he go rock? or scissors?

I think you should go rock. That way if he is rock, you tie. If he goes scissors, you win.

[Piemaster]

I think this is a fairly easy paper. There is nothing riding on the game and so you have to look at his motivation for playing. He wants to say he is going rock and then go rock and still win and then be able to laugh at you saying 'haha I even told you what I was going to do'.

I think rock is also a reasonable choice, because I think it's very unlikely that he says this and then goes paper.

Scissors is horrible.

[pokerchap]

hes going rock 95% of the time here.

[Yoshi63]

Fold preflop?

Actually, I think Piemaster makes a good point. Since there's nothing riding on the game, he's probably just gonna throw rock so he can hope to win and show how awesome he is (for telling you and still winning). So you should throw paper to beat him.

If instead you are battling your friend for last beer, and he says "I'm throwing rock," it becomes less clear. People hardly ever throw paper on the first throw, and there are 3 valid reasons why:

1) Your hand is already in a fist, so it's easiest to just leave it there and throw rock.

2) Paper requires the most effort to throw (extention of all digits), and is thus the most awkward throw.

3) People tend to remember the first and last part (of just about anything) more than the middle. In their brain it's like ROCK! paper SCISSORS!... so they rarely choose paper on the first throw.

For this reason I would probably still throw rock. Him throwing paper wouldn't make much sense from a strategic standpoint (from any "I'm throwing rock" trick), and again people rarely throw paper. Unfortunately, if he actually has NO well-planned strategy and just decided to spit out "I'm throwing rock" without actually deciding yet what he would throw, he may often go to paper. Simply because if he can't throw rock (since he TOLD you he was going rock, duh!), the next logical choice would be paper as it comes after "rock" in the priming.

In conclusion:

Stranger on the street - you should throw paper
You vs friend for beer - he becomes less predictable than a normal apponent, but i think you can still make a thin value throw of rock.

[MychCumstien]

[ QUOTE ]
thin value throw

Stranger on the street - you should throw paper
You vs friend for beer - he becomes less predictable than a normal apponent, but i think you can still ma thin value throw ke a thin value throw of rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love it, lol. Comparing Rock paper scissors to poker. I do think he goes rock most of the time. I still think if he doesn't throw rock, he's throwing scissors, assuming you'll go paper to beat rock.

I like throwing rock here regardless of the villain, and motivation. I think you'll hardly ever see "paper" by the villain. I think Rock is the most +EV play. Sure you'll tie most of time, but you'll snap off a few bluffs when he shows scissors as well.

[btmagnetw]

this is way more in depth than i expected. well done.